News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • UK PM Boris Johnson set to allow fully vaccinated US and EU tourists to visit England - BBG $GBP $EUR $USD
  • Trader confidence is still brittle, but not quite as poor as it was last week, as the markets wait for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision on US monetary policy and a deluge of US corporate earnings. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/GZ15ZF8mCu https://t.co/TzAxLYxKVS
  • US #Dollar Outlook: $DXY Plunges into Technical Support Ahead of #FOMC - https://t.co/jZbtAm46KM https://t.co/KYDx13WG6j
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.69%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 71.94%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/nyQhlMbrtS
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.19% Germany 30: -0.26% FTSE 100: -0.33% Wall Street: -0.67% US 500: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/1p0QdJRrFr
  • RT @RiskReversal: A feisty @macrosetup this week with @GuyAdami and our guest, @DailyFX's @CVecchioFX who was dropping puns like he was the…
  • GBP/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short GBP/USD for the first time since Jun 16, 2021 when GBP/USD traded near 1.40. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to GBP/USD strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6IxNIkWji6
  • NY Fed accepts $927.42 billion in reverse repo operations $USD $DXY
  • $EURUSD is looking to close above the 20-day moving average for the first time in 36 trading days. This would end the longest bearish leg (by definition of spot above/below 20 SMA) since Nov 16, 2018 https://t.co/CM9PhSi7RN
  • USD/CAD struggles to push back above the 200-Day SMA (1.2608) as it tracks the range-bound price action carried over from the previous week. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/VZBKpusKx1 https://t.co/GSZTNOfuOm
Gold Price Outlook Mired by Failure to Test August High

Gold Price Outlook Mired by Failure to Test August High

David Song, Strategist

Gold Talking Points

Gold pares the decline from the previous week to preserve the range-bound price action from September, but the current environment may continue to sap the appeal of the precious metal as the Federal Reserve appears to be on track to implement another rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in December.

Image of daily change for financial instruments

Gold Price Outlook Mired by Failure to Test August High

Image of daily change for gold prices

Gold trades on a firmer footing ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with the precious metal tagging a weekly high of $1208, but the fresh updates coming out of the world’s largest economy may curb the recent rebound in bullion as employment is expected to increase another 184K in September.

The ongoing improvement in the labor market should keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on track to move away from its accommodative stance as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for monetary policy, and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs at the next rate decision on November 8 as ‘the economy is strong, unemployment is near 50-year lows, and inflation is roughly at our 2 percent objective.

At the same time, there appears to be little to no signs of an imminent shift in risk appetite as U.S. equities trade near record-highs, and expectations for higher U.S. interest rates accompanied by higher stock prices may keep gold under pressure especially as retail interest remains heavily skewed, with the IG Client Sentiment Report showing 84.0% of traders net-long bullion.

Image of IG client sentiment

The ratio of traders long to short stands at 5.27 to 1 as the number of traders net-long is 9.8% higher than yesterday and 3.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 15.2% lower than yesterday and 21.3% higher from last week. The ongoing slant in retail positioning offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, with the string of failed attempts to test the August-high ($1225) fostering a bearish outlook for bullion as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish formations carried over from the same period.Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Daily Chart

Image of daily chart for gold prices
  • Failure to push back above the $1210 (50% retracement) to $1219 (61.8% retracement) region may bring the downside targets back on the radar, with first area of interest coming in around $1172 (61.8% retracement) to $1177 (78.6% retracement).
  • Need a break/close below the Fibonacci overlap to bring up the 2018-low ($1160), which sits just above the $1156 (61.8% retracement) hurdle.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q4 Forecast for Gold

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES