Never miss a story from David Song

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to David Song

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Euro Talking Points

EUR/USD pares the decline following the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with the exchange rate bouncing back from a fresh monthly-low (1.1526), but the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on tap for September 13 may produce headwinds for the Euro as the Governing Council remains in no rush to move away from its easing-cycle.

Image of daily change for major currencies

Dovish European Central Bank (ECB) Forward-Guidance to Rattle EUR/USD

Image of daily change for eurusd

EUR/USD may face range-bound conditions ahead of the ECB interest rate decision in light the failed attempt to test the August-high (1.1734), but fresh remarks from the Governing Council may continue to sap the of the single currency as the central bank keeps the door open to further support the monetary union.

Keep in mind, the ECB is expected to unveil an updated exit strategy as the central bank pledges to wind down its asset purchases to EUR15B/month starting in October, with the quantitative easing (QE) program set to expire in December.

However, the ECB may continue to highlight a dovish forward-guidance as ‘significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term,’ andthe Governing Council is likely to reiterate that interest rates will ‘remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019’ as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. As a result, unless there’s a material change in the monetary policy outlook, more of the same from President Mario Draghi and Co. may rattle the Euro, with EUR/USD at risk of facing range-bound conditions as market participants gear up for the Federal Reserve rate decision on September 26. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart
  • Near-term outlook for EUR/USD is getting clouded with mixed signals as it fails to extend the series of higher highs & lows from the previous week, with the exchange rate at risk for a larger pullback amid the failed attempt to test the August-high (1.1734).
  • Lack of momentum to push back above the 1.1640 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1680 (50% retracement) region raises the risk for a move back towards the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion), with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1290 (61.8% expansion), which largely lines up with the 2018-low (1.1301).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for the Euro

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.