News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection -
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar gained, pushing USD/SGD to break higher. However, USD/IDR may be looking at losses ahead. USD/MYR struggled to breach the March trendline. USD/PHP could rise.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The #DowJones and #SP500 have as of today averaged: -2.16% & 1.43% 3-months and 1-year before #Election2020 respectively What could this mean for the incumbent president/Trump next week? 👇
Gold Carves Narrowing Range Following Failed Run at July 2017 Low

Gold Carves Narrowing Range Following Failed Run at July 2017 Low

2018-08-07 15:00:00
David Song, Strategist

Gold Talking Points

Gold prices are trading in a narrow range following the failed attempt to test the July 2017-low ($1207), but the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside as the precious metal continues to track the bearish trend from earlier this year.

Image of daily change for major financial instruments

Gold Carves Narrowing Range Following Failed Run at July 2017 Low

Image of daily change for gold prices

The recent rebound in bullion has been accompanied by U.S. dollar weakness, with the greenback losing ground against all of its major counterparts, and the growing threat of a global trade war may continue to sap the appeal of the reserve currency as President Donald Trump tweets that ‘anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States.

The repercussions from the shift in U.S. trade policy may become a growing discussion at the Federal Reserve as ‘most participants noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending,’ but recent comments from Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. suggest the central bank will stay on its current course to implement higher borrowing-costs as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.

Image of Fed Fund Futures

With that said, Fed Fund Futures may continue to reflect expectations for four rate-hikes in 2018 as market participants gear up for a move in September and December, and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC hiking-cycle may continue to sap the appeal of gold as ‘the Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.

Image of IG client sentiment

Keep in mind, the IG Client Sentiment Report still shows retail sentiment near recent extremes as 85.8% of traders are net-long gold with the ratio of traders long to short at 6.02 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.5% higher than yesterday and 2.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.2% higher than yesterday and 10.9% higher from last week.

The persistent slant in retail positioning presents a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, with the broader outlook for gold still tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to track the bearish formations carried over from earlier this year.

Gold Daily Chart

Image of gold daily chart
  • Gold prices remain vulnerable amid the recent string of lower highs, with failure to hold above the Fibonacci overlap around $1210 (50% retracement) to $1219 (61.8% retracement) raising the risk for fresh 2018 lows.
  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI, with a break of trendline support paired with a break below 30 raising the risk for a further decline in gold prices.
  • Next downside region of interest coming in around $1198 (38.2% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around $1172 (61.8% retracement) to $1177 (78.6% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Gold

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.