0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇺🇸 *PELOSI SAYS `MILES APART' ON SOME ISSUES IN #STIMULUS TALKS - BBG *PELOSI: `VERY FAR APART' ON MONEY FOR GETTING KIDS TO…
  • White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow: -Data suggests economy only needs 'targeted money' -Thinks economy is entering a 'self-sustaining recovery' -Trump 'completely opposes' bailing out states $USD $TNX $SPX
  • FTSE 100 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short FTSE 100 for the first time since Jul 20, 2020 when FTSE 100 traded near 6,264.90. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to FTSE 100 strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/iX4wB4HOah
  • Fed's Rosengren says the #Fed has been clear that negative interest rates are unlikely to be used
  • Back from vacation and back on schedule Going live for today's stock market webinar in 10 minutes - https://t.co/rmwDABTiN2 https://t.co/oC3Igu2muT
  • I've seen three more headlines today suggesting that there is significant money still on the sidelined despite the climb in markets. Is the assumption that some small tech milestone or new headline would excite investors to pay record amounts to get into a stretched market?
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.57% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.41% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.40% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.14% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/3mZjwCXcwc
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 2.39% France 40: 1.37% US 500: 1.29% Germany 30: 1.14% Wall Street: 0.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/3rljxp4YdZ
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Kaplan Speech due at 15:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-12
  • Poll: What do you think set off Gold's sharp tumble yesterday - its largest single-day plunge since the April 2013 crash? Answering this question for yourself can help you decide whether this is a temporary waver or the impetus for a new trend.
Oil Price Forecast: Topside Targets Back on Radar as Crude Breaks Out

Oil Price Forecast: Topside Targets Back on Radar as Crude Breaks Out

2018-07-30 15:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Oil Talking Points

Oil prices continue to pare the decline from earlier this month as recent comments from Russia’s Energy Minister,Alexander Novak, suggest the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will retain its efforts to rebalance the energy market, and crude may continue to exhibit a bullish behavior over the coming days as it breaks out of the range-bound price action from the previous week.

Image of daily change for major currencies

Oil Price Forecast: Topside Targets Back on Radar as Crude Breaks Out

Image of daily change for oil prices

The advance from the monthly-low ($67.08) appears to be gathering pace as Mr. Novak pledges to ‘follow the decisions made in June’ at OPEC’s 174th meeting, and it looks as though the group will continue to operate below full-capacity as ‘the decision we have for now is for 1 million barrels until the end of the year, with the condition that in September we will look at production-consumption balance.’

Image of EIA chart of US crude oil production

The comments suggest OPEC and its allies will regulate crude production beyond 2018 despite the renewed sanctions on Iran, and signs of easing output in the United States may fuel the recent advance in oil prices as recent updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed field production holding steady at 11,000K b/d in the week ending July 20.

With that said, supply-side adjustments may keep oil prices afloat, and the broader outlook for crude still constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) track the upward trends from earlier this year.

Oil Daily Chart

Image of oil daily chart
  • Recent price action raises the risk for a larger advance as the $67.10 (23.6% expansion) to $67.30 (50% expansion) region offers support, with a break/close above $70.40 (78.6% expansion) bringing the topside targets back on the radar,
  • First region of interest comes in around $71.00 (50% expansion) to $71.20 (38.2% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around $72.70 (50% expansion) to $72.80 (100% expansion).
  • Break/close above the former-support zone brings up the $74.00 (61.8% expansion) handle followed by the $75.20 (78.6% expansion) to $75.90 (78.6% expansion) region, which largely lines up with the July-high ($75.24).
  • Will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it appears to be on its way to threaten the downward trend from earlier this month, with a break of trendline resistance raising the risk for a larger advance in oil prices as it offers a bullish trigger.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q3 Forecast for Oil

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.