News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The 10-day range and realized volatility (ATR) on $USDMXN are the lowest since 2008 and 2014 respectively. Breakout risk is high - when the right spark comes along (eg FOMC) https://t.co/teP1XQI7W6
  • Bitcoin taking a breather today after rallying back above $47,000. 50-day MA crosses back above the 200-day MA $BTCUSD #Bitcoin https://t.co/5Yidx9WQhc
  • AUD/USD extends the decline following the larger-than-expected contraction in Australia employment as fresh data prints coming out of the US fuel speculation for an imminent shift in monetary policy. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/40vc0oCeiE https://t.co/vjrF47cALn
  • Gold prices are plodding along below symmetrical triangle support, with momentum indicators starting to point lower. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/9JDAY4QlnJ https://t.co/ftL6JbIC3c
  • Ouch. S&P Global said today that El Salvador's announcement that Bitcoin was legal tender represented an 'immediate' negative credit risk to its B- standing. They warn of trouble with IMF fund access and fiscal vulnerabilities. #Bitcoin
  • 🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (JUL) Actual: $126B Previous: $32B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • 🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (JUL) Actual: $10.2B Previous: $10.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • US equities have come under a bit of pressure recently which has played in nicely with the recent trend in the S&P 500, which has been bouncing off a key trendline support for the past year. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/QIyCQJUasG https://t.co/LxuUGGY4yS
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $31.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $10.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
EUR/USD Forecast: Rebound at Risk on More Dovish ECB Rhetoric

EUR/USD Forecast: Rebound at Risk on More Dovish ECB Rhetoric

David Song, Strategist

Euro Talking Points

EUR/USD slips to a fresh weekly-low (1.1531) as the European Central Bank (ECB) endorses a dovish outlook for monetary policy, and the euro-dollar exchange rate stands at risk for further losses as the Governing Council appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

Image of daily change for major currencies

EUR/USD Forecast: Rebound at Risk on More Dovish ECB Rhetoric

Image of daily change for EURUSD

The ECB looks poised to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout the remainder of the year as officials struggles to achieve their one and only mandate for price stability, and the Governing Council may continue to tame bets for a higher borrowing-costs as President Mario Draghi insists that the central bank ‘will remain patient in determining the timing of the first rate rise and will take a gradual approach to adjusting policy thereafter.’

The comments suggest the ECB will keep the door open to further support the monetary union as the quantitative easing (QE) is now set to expire in December, and the lack of urgency to move away from the easing-cycle may continue to produce headwinds for EUR/USD especially as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) shows a greater willingness to implement four rate-hikes in 2018.

Keep in mind, President Draghi is also slated to participant in a panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, which include Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and another batch of dovish rhetoric may dampen the appeal of the single currency as the Governing Council pledges to retain the ‘policy of reinvesting the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of our net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

As a result, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further losses as it appears to be carving a bearish outside-day (engulfing), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic as it preserves the downward trend from earlier this year and approaches oversold territory.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of EURUSD daily chart
  • Near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains mired by the string of failed attempts to close above the 1.1790 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) region, with a break of the May-low (1.1510) raising the risk for a move towards 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion).
  • Next region of interest comes in around 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1210 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 Forecast for the Euro

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

Image of DailyFX Economic Calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES