News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/6inC94w5K4
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/Cv06XcvldF https://t.co/I12g2YPkdE
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/KsPiWBysiR
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/iUvhLfQgcK
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ZkDHyV1VhM https://t.co/w5sPChKdNx
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/bde30KM8OE
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/sjh91mjtXs https://t.co/dGT067zKnH
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/VLZQhrQTAf
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/j5xDAG6LLb
  • While the meetings of central bankers in the US, Japan and the UK will be front, left and center of traders’ minds this coming week, it would be wise not to ignore next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Get your euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/m920Uvmngm https://t.co/yQYtfHf66s
AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Failed Attempt to Break Trendline Resistance

AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Failed Attempt to Break Trendline Resistance

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD retraces the decline from late last week even as the G7 Summit does little to ward off the threat for a global trade war, and the pair may continue to catch a bid over the next 24-hours of trade as the recent pickup in market sentiment appears to be gathering pace.

Image of daily change for major currencies

AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Failed Attempt to Break Trendline Resistance

Image of daily change for AUDUSD

Following the reaction to the Australia’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, recent developments in AUD/USD raises the scope for a more meaningful recovery as the pair breaks out of a near-term range.

Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains in no rush to lift the cash rate off of the record-low, indications of stronger-than-expected growth may push the central bank to gradually change its tune in the second-half of the year, with the improvement in risk appetite likely to keep AUD/USD afloat ahead of the meeting minutes due out on June 18 as the rebound from the May-low (0.7412) continues to unfold.

Keep in mind, a marked slowdown in Australia Home Loans may rattle the aussie-dollar exchange rate as Governor Philip Lowe and Co. warns that ‘the level of household debt remains high,’ but the RBA Minutes may heighten the appeal of the Australia dollar as ‘members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down.’ With that said, AUD/USD may make another attempt to threaten the downward trend from earlier this year as bullish momentum appears to be gathering pace, with a break of trendline resistance raising the risk for a more meaningful recovery in the exchange rate.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of AUDUSD daily chart
  • String of lower-highs may produce a larger pullback in AUD/USD as the near-term rebound appears to be stalling ahead of trendline resistance, with a break/close below 0.7590 (100% expansion) bringing the downside targets back on the radar.
  • However, the 0.7650 (38.2% retracement) remains on the radar as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends the bullish formation carried over from the previous month, with a close back above the stated region raising the risk for a run at the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7720 (23.6% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion).
  • Next region of interest comes in around 0.7850 23.6% retracement) to 0.7860 (61.8% expansion) followed by the overlap around 0.7930 (50% retracement) to 0.7940 (61.8% retracement), which sits just above the March-high (0.7916).

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES