News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/WQLZ1X7gIY
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level https://t.co/LkEyRxFhnq
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/vytr4OR1Jy https://t.co/ZcxEUWIm8O
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/x8uyOHLtgE
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/CaMR0Vqd1m
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/urDN2b5Nwd https://t.co/toSDbVZCSi
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here: https://t.co/5gbiHmY8yl https://t.co/mQ6ty8Yalv
  • The Euro looks poised to continue gaining ground against haven-associated currencies and may reverse higher against the British Pound in the near term. Get your #Euro market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/oRIHju7ZzK https://t.co/dIEErVzWEY
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/K1qL0fsGwy https://t.co/tRfjlN6X22
NZD/USD Retains Bearish Series Ahead of PPI, 2018 Budget Statement

NZD/USD Retains Bearish Series Ahead of PPI, 2018 Budget Statement

2018-05-16 15:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTS

The New Zealand dollar trades on a firmer footing ahead of the annual budget statement, but recent price action in NZD/USD keeps the near-term outlook tilted to the downside as the pair continues to carve a series of lower highs & lows. The updates from Finance Minister Grant Robertson may do little to alter the near-term outlook for kiwi-dollar as the government led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardernplan to further develop the Living Standards Framework (LSF), but updates to the Producer Price Index (PPI) may rattle the recent rebound in the exchange rate should the print dampen the outlook for inflation.

Image of daily change for major currencies

NZD/USD PRESERVES BEARISH SEQUENCE AHEAD OF NEW ZEALAND PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI), 2018 BUDGET STATEMENT

Image of daily change for NZDUSD

Like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a slowdown in factory-gate prices may produce headwinds for the New Zealand dollar as it encourages the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low throughout 2018. In turn, Governor Adrian Orr may stick to the current script at the next meeting on June 27, and the central bank may continue to tame expectations for a rate-hike as officials ‘expect to keep the OCR at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time.

With that said, the New Zealand dollar may continue to weaken against its U.S. counterpart as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a rate-hike in June, and recent price action raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as NZD/USD preserves the bearish sequence carried over from the previous week.

NZD/USD DAILY CHART

Image of NZDUSD daily chart
  • The November-low (0.6780) remains on the radar as NZD/USD continues to carve lower highs & lows, but need to see a break/close below the 0.6820 (23.6% retracement) to 0.6870 (78.6% expansion) region to open up the next area of interest around 0.6780 (100% expansion).
  • However, recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) clouds the near-term outlook as the oscillator bounces back from an extreme reading and is on the cusp of flashing a textbook buy-signal as it appears to be climbing back above 30.

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

ADDITIONAL TRADING RESOURCES

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES