News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here:
  • The Euro looks poised to continue gaining ground against haven-associated currencies and may reverse higher against the British Pound in the near term. Get your #Euro market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
USD/CAD Bearish Series Takes Shape Ahead of Canada Employment Report

USD/CAD Bearish Series Takes Shape Ahead of Canada Employment Report

2018-05-10 17:30:00
David Song, Strategist


  • USD/CAD Tumbles to Fresh Monthly-Low Following Lackluster U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Bearish Series Takes Shape Ahead of Canada Employment Report.
  • NZD/USD Eyes November-Low (0.6780) as Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr Endorses Wait-and-See Approach for Monetary Policy.
Image of daily performance for major currencies

USD/CAD continues to give back the advance from the previous month as fresh data prints coming out of the U.S. economy highlight a limited risk for above-target inflation, with the pair at risk for a further decline as Canada’s Employment report is anticipated to show a 20.0K expansion in April. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar remains under pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keeps the cash rate at the record-low of 1.75%, and NZD/USD appears to be on track to test the November-low (0.6780) as it extends the bearish sequence from earlier this week.


Image of daily performance for USDCAD

USD/CAD slips to a fresh monthly-low (1.2743) as updates to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) dampen bets for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018, and the exchange rate stands at risk for further losses as it carves a fresh series of lower highs & lows.

Despite the uptick in the headline print, a deeper look at the report showed the core CPI holding steady at an annualized 2.1% for the second straight month in April, while growth in Real Average Hourly Earnings narrowed to 0.2% from a revised 0.3% in March.

Keep in mind, the recent developments should keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on course to further normalize monetary policy as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate, but the limited threat for above-target inflation may push Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. to tame bets for an extending hiking-cycle as ‘inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.

With that said, attention now turns to Canada’s Employment report, which is anticipated to show the economy adding 20.0K jobs in April, and a positive development may fuel the recent decline in USD/CAD as it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to deliver another rate-hike later this year.


Image of USDCAD daily chart
  • Downside targets are starting to come back on the radar for USD/CAD as it snaps the monthly opening range, with the pair at risk for a larger decline as a fresh bearish series takes shape.
  • Need a break/close below the 1.2720 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2770 (38.2% expansion) to open up the next area of interest around 1.2620 (50% retracement), with the next downside hurdle coming in around 1.2440 (23.6% expansion) to 1.2510 (78.6% retracement), which sits just beneath the April-low (1.2527).

For more in-depth analysis, check out theQ2 Forecast for the U.S. Dollar


Image of daily performance of NZDUSD

NZD/USD remains under pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and the exchange rate appears to on track to test the November-low (0.6780) as it carves a bearish sequence.

Fresh remarks from the RBNZ suggest the central bank is in no rush to alter the forward guidance as Governor Adrian Orr keeps the official cash rate at the record-low of 1.75% and expects borrowing-costs to stay at the ‘expansionary level for a considerable period of time.’

It seems as though the RBNZ will retain the current policy throughout 2018 asannual CPI inflation is expected to be lower than projected in the February Statement,’ and recent price action in NZD/USD raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as the bearish momentum from earlier this year appears to be reasserting itself.


Image of NZDUSD daily chart
  • String of lower highs & lows keeps the downside targets on the radar for NZD/USD, with a close below the 0.6950 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6960 (38.2% retracement) region raising the risk for a move back towards the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6820 (23.6% retracement) to 0.6870 (78.6% expansion).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 0.6780 (100% expansion), which lines up with the November-low, followed by the 0.6710 (61.8% expansion) region.
  • Rather than diverging with price, recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also reinforces a bearish outlook for the NZD/USD rate as the oscillator pushes back into oversold territory.

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.