News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 1.22% 🇨🇭CHF: 1.00% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.76% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.57% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.40% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/cNW9pYcJja
  • Senator Wyden says the Senate Majority Leader's aid proposal is "disastrous" - BBG $SPX $DXY
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 6.08% Gold: 2.12% Oil - US Crude: -0.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/BONy6uctXc
  • My top three charts for most wanton volatility this past session in order: Moderna ($MRNA); Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) and $EURGBP (15min)
  • AUD/USD consolidates ahead of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as the data is expected to confirm the first recession in nearly 30 years. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/JFPEGVAZDj https://t.co/0fTHbd6t3t
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.56%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 76.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MSlYB2cBJ4
  • #Sterling Outlook: $GBPUSD Breakout Targets 2019 / 2020 Yearly Highs - https://t.co/reEpFP3uuV https://t.co/4Lq11aWSut
  • US Equity Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI +0.63% $SPX +1.13% $NDX +1.52% $RUT +0.89% $VIX +1.46%
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.05% Wall Street: -0.00% US 500: -0.01% France 40: -0.08% Germany 30: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/THoGZiCXvk
  • Things are popping in the FX market. $EURUSD is working on its biggest rally since March - and third biggest since Jan 12, 2018 when you exclude pandemic volatility. Even more impressive on weekly/monthly charts https://t.co/b7UjY0rEaY
Oil Prices Snap Bearish Sequence, OPEC Sees Rebalanced Energy Market

Oil Prices Snap Bearish Sequence, OPEC Sees Rebalanced Energy Market

2018-02-12 16:42:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

FX Talking Points:

- Oil Prices Snap Bearish Sequence, OPEC Sees Rebalanced Energy Market in 2018.

- Hawkish BoE Rhetoric Fails to Prop Up GBP/USD Ahead of U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

DailyFX TableUSOIL Table

Crude snaps a three-day losing streak as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) insist the energy market will be rebalance in 2018.

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report appears to be grabbing market attention as United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei , the group’s current president, argues the pickup in shale output will not be ‘a huge distorter of the market’ even as U.S. production hits record-highs.

Efforts by OPEC and its allies to curb supply are likely to keep oil prices afloat as ‘demand for this year is expected to be good, if not better than 2017,’ but a further pickup in Non-OPEC production may drag on oil prices especially as the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) warns ‘the United States is projected to become a net energy exporter by 2022.’

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil

As a result, market participants may pay greater attention to U.S. field outputs rather than the weekly updates to the oil inventory figures, and OPEC and its allies may ultimately come under pressure to extend its rebalancing efforts beyond this year as ‘U.S. crude oil production in 2018 is projected to surpass the record of 9.6 million barrels per day (b/d) set in 1970 and will continue to grow as upstream producers increase output because of the combined effects of rising prices and production cost reductions.’

USOIL Daily Chart

USOIL Daily Chart

Interested in trading? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

  • Broader outlook for crude is clouded with mixed signals as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tracks the bearish formation from earlier this year.
  • Nevertheless, the near-term outlook for USOIL has perked up as it halts the series of lower highs & lows from earlier this month, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be reversing course ahead of oversold territory.
  • Lack of momentum to test the 100-Day SMA (57.68) along with the failed attempts to close below the 59.00 (61.8% retracement) handle may bring the topside targets back on the radar, with the first hurdle coming in around 61.40 (78.6% retracement) followed by the former-support zone around 62.30 (38.2% expansion) to 62.80 (38.2% retracement).
GBP/USD Table

GBP/USD struggles to hold its ground even as Bank of England (BoE) board member Gertjan Vlieghe strikes a hawkish outlook for monetary policy, and the pair may continue to consolidate over the days ahead as the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to highlight a mixed outlook for inflation.

Even though BoE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane notes that the central bank is in no rush to normalize monetary policy, Mr. Vlieghe warned against a ‘long break’ and went onto say that ‘further rises in rates are likely to be appropriate’ as inflation continues to run above the 2% target.

In turn, market participants may closely watch the fresh updates to the U.K. CPI, with a downtick in the headline reading likely to keep GBP/USD under pressure as it saps bets for an imminent BoE rate-hike. However, signs of sticky price growth may spark a bullish reaction in the British Pound as its puts pressure on Governor Mark Carney and Co. to implement higher borrowing-costs sooner rather than later. Want more insight? Sign up & join DailyFX Market Analyst Nick Cawley LIVE to cover the U.K. CPI report.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Interested in having a broader discussion on current market themes? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

  • Near-term outlook for GBP/USD remains capped by the 1.3970 (50% expansion) region, with the downside targets still on the radar as the pair carves a fresh series of lower-highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the bearish formation from earlier this year.
  • The former-resistance zone around 1.3690 (61.8% expansion) to 1.3700 (38.2% expansion) is in focus as it largely lines up with trendline support; next downside hurdle coming in around 1.3560 (50% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3440 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3460 (50% retracement).
DailyFX Calendar

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES