News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/JPY and GBP/JPY may reverse lower in the near-term as both exchange rates fail to breach key resistance. CAD/JPY rates eyeing a retest of its post-crisis high. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/NptWy89cTa https://t.co/PYrMMwaCXg
  • Both $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD are slipping in early Tuesday APAC trade following dovish remarks from the #RBA ... https://t.co/nvOjnM8z8h ...and #RBNZ respectively: https://t.co/tDlVxzO68h https://t.co/w3y9zDlz6i
  • RBA's Kent: Notes still room to compress short-term rates -BBG $AUDUSD #RBA
  • Read your daily election update⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/10/19/AUDUSD-Downtrend-to-Accelerate-Election-Betting-Odds-Defying-Polls.html
  • - Election polls show Biden ahead of Trump, but betting odds are show a slightly different narrative - Third #PresidentialDebate2020: time, location and topics - #AUDUSD downtrend may accelerate as area between descending resistance and support narrows
  • RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent: Balance sheet metrics give useful insight to policy stance, more complex to assess policy stance than in past -BBG $AUDUSD
  • Poll: What market has the greatest potential for volatility should the the US government finally compromise on stimulus - or definitively pull hope on it for the foreseeable future (though I believe that is a very low probability)
  • RBNZ's Orr: Prefer to deal with more inflation than battle deflation -BBG $NZDUSD
  • RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr: RBNZ has plenty of room left in QE program, will update on developments of policy tools in November -BBG $NZDUSD
  • The US Dollar faces a range of mixed technical signals against ASEAN currencies after some gains and losses. What is the road ahead for USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/MYR and USD/PHP? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Sa9rXakHtM https://t.co/5jf4k5fb9Z
GBP Risks Further Losses as UK & EU Gear Up for Phase 2 of Brexit Deal

GBP Risks Further Losses as UK & EU Gear Up for Phase 2 of Brexit Deal

2017-12-15 16:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Dismal New Zealand 3Q GDP Report to Tame NZD/USD Recovery.

- GBP/USD Struggles as UK & EU Gear Up for Phase 2 of Brexit Deal.

DailyFX TableNZD/USD

NZD/USD looks poised for a larger recovery as it breaks the monthly opening range, but New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may tame the recent advance in the exchange rate as the growth rate is anticipated to slow to an annualized 2.4% from 2.5% in the second quarter of 2017.

A marked slowdown in economic activity is likely to produce a bearish reaction in kiwi-dollar as it dampens the outlook for price growth, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may have little choice but to retain the record-low cash rate at the next meeting on February 8 as ‘underlying inflation remains subdued.’

Keep in mind, Adrian Orr takes the helm on March 27, with market participants looking for a gradually shift in the monetary policy outlook under the new leadership, but the broader outlook for NZD/USD remains tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bearish formations carried over from the summer months. Want to learn more about popular trading indicators and tools such as the RSI? Download and review the FREE DailyFX Advanced trading guides!

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • Recent price action keeps the topside targets on the radar as NZD/USD breaks out of a near-term range, but the rebound appears to be losing steam ahead of the 0.7040 (50% retracement) hurdle as it snaps the series of higher highs & lows from earlier this week.
  • Need a break/close above 0.7040 (50% retracement) to open up the 0.7110 (38.2% expansion) region, which largely lines up with the 200-Day SMA (0.7103), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.7200 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7240 (61.8% retracement).
  • However, failure to test channel resistance may give way to range-bound conditions, with the pair at risk for a move back towards the former-resistance zone around 0.6940 (61.8% expansion) to 06950 (38.2% retracement) as it struggles to preserve the advance from earlier this week.
GBP/USD

The British Pound struggles to hold its ground even the European Union (EU) announces that recent talks with U.K. officials have been ‘sufficient to move to the second phase related to transition and the framework for the future relationship,’ and the pound-dollar exchange rate stands at risk of facing choppy prices over the near-term as the ‘European Council will continue to follow the negotiations closely and will adopt additional guidelines in March 2018.’

Time may be against Prime Minister Theresa May as European officials note that the trade deals put forth by the U.K. have not been ‘convincing,’ and expectations for a fresh set of procedures may continue to drag on the British Pound as the EU highlights ‘that negotiations in the second phase can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken during the first phase are respected in full and translated faithfully into legal terms as quickly as possible.’

With limited U.K. data prints on tap for the week ahead, headlines surrounding phase 2 of the Brexit deal may influence GBP/USD, with the pair at risk for further losses following the failed attempt to test the 2017-high (1.3657). Want more insight? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to cover key market themes along with potential trade setups.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • Near-term outlook for GBP/USD remains capped by the 1.3560 (50% expansion) region, with the pair still at risk of giving back the advance from the November-low (1.3039) especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) starts to establish a bearish trend.
  • Waiting for a break/close below the 1.3280 (23.6% expansion) to 1.3300 (100% expansion) region to open up the next downside target around 1.3090 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3120 (78.6% retracement), with the October-low (1.3027) on the radar.
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the Entire DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES