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  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year)
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
USD/JPY Snaps Bearish Sequence as U.S. Extends Debt-Limit

USD/JPY Snaps Bearish Sequence as U.S. Extends Debt-Limit

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Nikkei (JPN225) Eyes Monthly Open Rage as U.N. Votes on Relaxed North Korea Sanction.

- USD/JPY Bounces Back From 2017-Low as U.S. Extends Debt-Limit.

- Sign Up for the DailyFX Trading Webinarsfor an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

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Daily Change

Daily Range







The Nikkei (JPN225) appears to on course to test the monthly opening range as the United Nations Security Council looks to de-escalate tensions with North Korea.

The rebound in global benchmark equity indices may gather pace over the coming days as the U.N. votes to relax the U.S.-proposed sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), but the pickup in risk appetite may be short-lived as Fitch Ratings warns the conflict surrounding the Korean peninsula may ultimately impact trade relations between the U.S. and China. In turn, ongoing tensions in Asia/Pacific may continue to sap trader sentiment, with the broader outlook for JPN225 becoming increasingly bearish as is fails to preserve the upward trend carried over from 2016.

JPN225 Daily Chart

JPN225 Daily Chart

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  • JPN225 looks poised to test the monthly-high (19,741) following the string of failed attempts to close below the 19,280 (23.6% retracement) hurdle, with the next topside hurdle coming in around 19,820 (23.6% retracement) followed by the former support-zone around 19,950 (38.2% expansion).
  • Keeping a close eye on the Relative Strength Index RSI) as it comes up against trendline resistance and threatens the bearish formation carried over from May; may see JPN225 continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year should the momentum indicator highlight a shift in market behavior.





Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)







USD/JPY snaps back from the 2017-low (107.32), with the rebound accompanied by a pickup in Treasury yieldsas U.S. lawmakers extend the debt limit and approve a $15B hurricane relief program.

The expansion in public spending may keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on course to further normalize monetary policy as the central bank ‘expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon,’ and the dollar-yen exchange rate may stage a relief rally ahead of the interest rate decision on September 20 as it snaps the bearish sequence from earlier this month.

However, the fresh projections from Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may dampen the appeal of the greenback as Fed officials adopt a less-hawkish tone, with In turn, the majority of the FOMC may continue to warn ‘inflation might remain below 2 percent for longer than they currently expected,’ and the committee may endorse a wait-and-see approach for the remainder of the year as ‘several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside.’

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • USD/JPY snaps the series of lower highs & lows ahead of the Fibonacci overlap around 106.60 (38.2% retracement) to 107.20 (61.8% retracement), with the pair at risk for a larger rebound especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) deviates with price.
  • Despite the fresh 2017-low in the exchange rate, the RSI continues to hold above 30, with the near-term bias tilted to the topside as the oscillator turns around ahead of oversold territory.
  • A close above the 108.30 (61.8% retracement) to 108.40 (100% expansion) zone may spur a move back towards the overlap around 109.40 (50% retracement) to 109.90 (78.6% expansion), with next topside hurdle coming in around 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.60 (38.2% retracement).
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.