We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @lisaabramowicz1: The combined balance sheet of the Fed, ECB, PBOC and BOJ rose in October by the most since last December: @TheTerminal…
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Join Senior Currency Strategist @CVecchioFX as he reviews key event risk in the week ahead and help strategize how to approach FX markets. Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/390818203?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.64%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 79.54%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/IA51JdDUFm
  • LIVE NOW: Join Analyst @nickcawley1 as he discusses the outlook for UK financial markets in the week ahead! Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/614330707?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • Tune in to @CVecchioFX 's #webinar at 7:30 AM ET/12:30 AM GMT to prepare for major event risk in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/d5MAOTwJAg https://t.co/LMD8T4RmDb
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.31% Gold: -0.61% Silver: -1.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OupsrU95XB
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.48% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.16% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/BSgv4brAkS
  • Trade conflict is clearly awful for the broad world economy, but some countries are already benefiting from it. More stand to do so. Spotting them early could be profitable. Get your update on the #tradewar from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/og0VAPAqwm https://t.co/eYpIISpKPe
  • Bundesbank says the slowdown of the German economy will probably continue in Q4, adding that the slowdown is unlikely to intensify markedly $EUR
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.15% US 500: 0.10% Germany 30: -0.14% France 40: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Px262wOzl2
Crude Oil Price Recovery to Carry Into July Amid Slowing U.S. Outputs

Crude Oil Price Recovery to Carry Into July Amid Slowing U.S. Outputs

2017-06-29 16:30:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Crude Oil Price Recovery to Carry Into July Amid Slowing U.S. Outputs.

- Japanese Yen Weakness to Persist as BoJ Endorses Dovish Outlook.

DailyFX Table

Symbol

Last

High

Low

Daily Change ($)

Daily Range ($)

USOIL

45.07

45.45

44.75

0.16

0.72

Oil prices continue to carve a bullish sequence after slipping to a fresh 2017-low ($42.08) in June, and the near-term recovery may carry into the month ahead as market participants turn their attention to the slowdown in U.S. production.

A report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude outputs fell the most in nearly a year, while BHP Billiton Ltd. Chairman Jacques Nasser showed regrets about venturing into U.S. shale, with the chair noting ‘in terms of shale, if you had to turn the clock back, and if you knew what we knew today, you wouldn’t do it.’ Headlines pointing to lower supplies may keep oil prices afloat over the near-term, but keep in mind the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside especially as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) resists calls to implement deeper production cuts.

USOIL Daily

USOIL Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Broader outlook for USOIL remain tilted to the downside as crude broadly track the downward trending channel from earlier this year, and oil prices may continue to carve a long-term bearish series over the remainder of the year amid the ongoing adjustment in energy market.
  • Nevertheless, the near-term bias tilted to the topside as USOIL comes off of channel support, and carves a string a higher highs & lows; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic as it breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from the end of May.
  • A close above the former-support zone around $45.30 (23.6% expansion) hurdle may spark a move back towards $46.30, with the next area of interest coming in around $47.10 (61.8% retracement) to $47.60 (38.2% expansion).

Have a question about the currency markets? Join a Trading Q&A webinar and ask it live!

Symbol

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/JPY

112.27

112.93

112.14

3

79

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure, with USD/JPY grinding to a fresh monthly high of 112.93, and the low-yielding currency may continue to weaken against its major counterparts as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to be on course to retain its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control throughout 2017.

BoJ board member Yutaka Harada pledged the central bank has no intentions of reducing its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings until the inflation approaches the 2% target, and it sees as though Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may now be the only game in town especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) gradually alters the outlook for monetary policy. The BoJ’s widening balance sheet is likely to keep the Yen under pressure as the central bank continues to flood the market with its local currency, and USD/JPY may continue to gain ground in the second-half of 2017 as the pair appears to be making another attempt to break out of the downward trend carried over from December.

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • USD/JPY may continue to work its way towards the May-high (114.37) as price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) start to establish a bullish trend, with a close above the Fibonacci overlap around 112.40 (61.8% retracement) to 112.80 (38.2% expansion) opening up the next topside target around 113.80 (23.6% expansion) to 114.30 (23.6% retracement).
  • Nevertheless, another failed attempt to close above near-term hurdle may produce range-bound conditions, with the dollar-yen exchange rate at risk of facing choppy price action as market participation thins going into the end of the month/quarter; first downside hurdle comes in around 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.60 (38.2% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 109.40 (50% retracement) to 109.90 (78.6% expansion).

Make Sure to Check Out the DailyFX Guides for Additional Trading Ideas.

IG Sentiment

Check Out the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

  • Retail trader data shows 75.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.07 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since April 19 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5266.2; price has moved 14.3% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.1% lower than yesterday and 20.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.2% higher than yesterday and 28.0% higher from last week.
  • Retail trader data shows 59.5% of traders are net-long USD/JPY with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.47 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 17 when USD/JPY traded near 113.757; price has moved 1.3% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.3% lower than yesterday and 20.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.2% lower than yesterday and 4.3% higher from last week.
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.