News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • No, it's not a crypto/altcoin, it's the VIX...#vix @DailyFX https://t.co/1To6DMoZQj
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.14% Wall Street: 0.04% Germany 30: -0.87% France 40: -0.94% FTSE 100: -1.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/8fhKptxKMf
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/HzHZKB6lNG
  • (Commodities Briefing) Crude Oil Prices at Risk if US PPI Data Echoes the Consumer Inflation Beat #OOTT #WTI #Oil #CrudeOil https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/05/13/Crude-Oil-Prices-at-Risk-if-US-PPI-Data-Echoes-the-Consumer-Inflation-Beat.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ojHQZXPFF3
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/NVlReyO4Ln
  • 🇯🇵 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (APR) Actual: 41.7 Previous: 49.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • 🇯🇵 Eco Watchers Survey Current (APR) Actual: 39.1 Previous: 49 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (APR) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 49.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Eco Watchers Survey Current (APR) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 49 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Crude oil double top in the works? - #CL1! chart https://t.co/IXWHfFNqRF
EUR/USD Carves Inside-Day; Less-Dovish ECB to Fuel Shift in Behavior

EUR/USD Carves Inside-Day; Less-Dovish ECB to Fuel Shift in Behavior

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Sterling Weathers Another Terror Attack; GBP/USD Clings to Bullish Formation Ahead of U.K. Election.

- EUR/USD Carves Inside-Day (Harami); Less-Dovish ECB to Fuel Shift in Market Behavior.

DailyFX Table

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

GBP/USD

1.2922

1.2941

1.2853

67

88

The British Pound weathers another terror attack in the U.K., with GBP/USD climbing to a fresh monthly high of 1.2940, and the pair may continue to gain ground ahead of the U.K. snap election on June 8 as it appears to be breaking out of a narrow range.

Hopes for a more unified government may keep Sterling afloat as opinion polls point to a Conservative majority, but the threat of a hung Parliament may undermine the recent recovery in the British Pound especially as the economic outlook remains clouded with high uncertainty. With that said, the Bank of England (BoE) may merely try to buy more time at the next policy meeting on June 15, and Governor Mark Carney and Co. may continue tame interest-rate expectations as ‘consumption growth will be slower in the near term than previously anticipated.’

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • GBP/USD may stage a larger recovery as it threatens the range-bound price action from the previous week, and the pair may work its way back towards the May high (1.3048) as it largely preserves the upward trend carried over from March; break/close above the 1.2950 (23.6% expansion) hurdle may spur a more meaningful run at the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3090 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3120 (78.6% retracement).
  • Topside targets will be favored as long as GBP/USD trades above the 50-Day SMA (1.2773), which largely lines up with trendline support, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a different dynamic as the oscillator fails to retain the bullish formation from earlier this year, with the first downside region of interest coming in around 1.2630 (38.2% expansion) to 1.2680 (50% retracement).

Have a question about the currency markets? Join a Trading Q&A webinar and ask it live!

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

EUR/USD

1.1252

1.1284

1.1234

25

50

The Euro lags behind its major counterparts, with EUR/USD at risk for a larger pullback ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on June 8 as it appears to be carving a bearish inside-day (harami).

The ECB policy meeting takes center stage as the central bank is scheduled to release its updated projections, and President Mario Draghi and Co. may keep the door to further embark on the easing-cycle as officials warn ‘a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation in the medium term.’ However, the Governing Council may soften its dovish tone as the central bank remains on course to conclude its quantitative easing (QE) program in December, and a material adjustment to the policy outlook may fuel a further shift in market behavior should the ECB show a greater willingness to wind down its asset-purchases over the coming months.

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Broader outlook for EUR/USD remains constructive as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the bullish trends carried over from late-2016, and pair may continue to retrace the decline from the 2016-high (1.1616) as the shift in market behavior continues to unfold; next topside hurdle comes in around 1.1330 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1340 (78.6% retracement).
  • However, the bearish inside-day (harami) candle may foster a near-term pullback in the euro-dollar exchange rate especially as the RSI struggles to push into oversold territory, with a move below 1.1220 (61.8% retracement) opening up the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1130 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1160 (38.2% expansion).

Make Sure to Check Out the DailyFX Guides for Additional Trading Ideas.

IG Sentiment
  • Retail trader data shows 42.1% of traders are net-long GBP/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.37 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 12 when GBP/USD traded near 1.24364; price has moved 3.9% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 11.9% higher than yesterday and 9.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.9% higher than yesterday and 7.5% higher from last week.
  • Retail trader data shows 29.7% of traders are net-long EUR/USD with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.36 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since April 18 when EUR/USD traded near 1.06045; price has moved 6.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 24.6% higher than yesterday and 4.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.3% lower than yesterday and 1.2% higher from last week.

For More Information on Retail Sentiment, Check Out the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

For LIVE Updates, Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for LIVE Analysis!

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES