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Aussie Snaps Back Ahead of RBA Minutes, EUR/USD Holds April Range

Aussie Snaps Back Ahead of RBA Minutes, EUR/USD Holds April Range

2017-04-13 17:22:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Snaps Back on Strong Australia Employment, Widening China Trade Surplus.

- EUR/USD Holds Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Easter Holiday.

DailyFX Table

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

AUD/USD

0.7577

0.7596

0.7522

55

74

AUD/USD Daily

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • AUD/USD snapped back from a fresh monthly low of 0.7473 after U.S. President Donald Trump warned the greenback was ‘too strong,’ and the pair may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this month as it initiates a fresh sequence of higher highs & lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns around ahead of oversold territory.
  • Nevertheless, the broader outlook for AUD/USD remains largely flat as the exchange rate continues to operate within the 2016-range, with the pair still capped by the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7730 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion); in turn, aussie-dollar remains vulnerable to further losses as long as the RSI preserves the bearish formation carried over from earlier this year.
  • The 60.9K expansion in Australia Employment accompanied by China’s widening trade surplus may prop up the aussie over the coming days as it instills an improved outlook for growth and inflation, but the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes due out on April 17 may dampen the appeal of the higher-yielding currency should the central bank continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy; it seems as though Governor Philip Lowe & Co. are in no rush to lift the official cash rate from the record-low as ‘recent data continued to suggest that there had been a build-up of risks associated with the housing market,’ and the central bank may increase its efforts to tame interest-rate expectations as officials argue ‘domestic wage pressures remained subdued and household income growth had been low.’
  • At the same time, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may keep AUD/USD afloat as the growth rate is expected to expand another annualized 6.8% during the first three-months of 2017, but a lackluster print may produce headwinds for the Australian dollar as it casts a weakened outlook for global trade.
  • With that said, AUD/USD sits at a key juncture as it comes up against the former-support zone around 0.7580 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7600 (23.6% retracement), with a move above the Fibonacci overlap opening up the next topside hurdle around 0.7650 (50% expansion) to 0.7680 (23.6% retracement); nevertheless, the downside targets may come back into play should the former-support zone act as resistance, with a break/close below 0.7450 (38.2% retracement) raising the risk for a move back towards 0.7410 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7420 (61.8% retracement).

Make Sure to Check Out the DailyFX Guides for Additional Trading Ideas.

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

EUR/USD

1.0618

1.0678

1.0609

47

69

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Despite the limited reaction to the U.S. data prints from earlier this morning, EUR/USD struggles to preserve the rebound from earlier this week, with the pair at risk of facing further losses especially as the RSI struggles to preserve the bullish formation carried over from late-2016; however, the pair stands at risk of facing range-bound conditions over the coming days as market participation thins going into the Easter holiday.
  • The longer-term outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as the pair continues to respect the bearish trend from the May high (1.1616), and the deviating paths for monetary policy may continue to drag on the euro-dollar exchange rate as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopts a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy; will continue to monitor market expectations as Fed Fund Futures roughly highlights a 60% probability for a June rate-hike.
  • However, the European Central Bank (ECB) could be forced to change its tune over the coming months as the Quantitative Easing (QE) program is scheduled to end in December 2017, and the threat of a ‘taper-tantrum’ may sway the broader outlook for the single-currency as the Governing Council appears to be approaching the end of its easing cycle; with that said, President Mario Draghi and Co. may respond by increasing their efforts to weaken the Euro, but the central bank may have little choice but to further extend the QE deadline as it struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability.
  • The failed attempt to break the monthly opening range paired with the lack of momentum to push above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0660 (50% expansion) to 1.0680 (78.6% expansion) may keep EUR/USD capped over the days ahead, with the pair at risk of giving back the advance from earlier this year should it fail to preserve the upward trend carried over from December.

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DailyFX Sentiment
  • Retail trader data shows 42.3% of traders are net-long AUD/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.37 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 30.5% lower than yesterday and 5.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 19.4% higher than yesterday and 2.3% lower from last week.
  • Retail trader data shows 62.4% of traders are net-long EUR/USD with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.66 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since April 3 when EUR/USD traded near 1.06665; price has moved 0.3% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 9.7% lower than yesterday and 17.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.7% lower than yesterday and 19.3% lower from last week.

For More Information on Retail Sentiment, Check Out the New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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