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USD/CAD Eyes Monthly Opening Range Ahead of BoC Meeting

USD/CAD Eyes Monthly Opening Range Ahead of BoC Meeting

2017-04-07 14:55:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Eyes Monthly Opening Range as Canada Employment Beats Forecast.

- GBP/USD Weakness to Persist on Slowing U.K. CPI, Average Weekly Earnings.

DailyFX Table

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/CAD

1.3379

1.3431

1.3342

34

89

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • USD/CAD continues to give back the advance from earlier this month as Canada Employment exceeds market expectations, with the region adding another 19.4K jobs in March, while U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased 98K during the same period amid forecasts for a 180K expansion.
  • The failed attempt to break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3450 (23.6% retracement) to 1.3460 (61.8% retracement) shifts the near-term outlook towards the downside especially as USD/CAD initiates a series of lower highs & lows; will continue to monitor the developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as former trendline support appears to be offering resistance.
  • The uptick in the Labor Force Participation Rate accompanied by the ongoing pickup in full-time positions may put increased pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low, but Governor Stephen Poloz may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the meeting on April 12 as the central bank head warns normalizing monetary policy prematurely would push the economy back into recession; in turn, more of the same from Poloz & Co. may dampen the appeal of the Canadian dollar as it drags on interest-rate expectations.
  • Broader outlook for USD/CAD remains constructive as it preserves the upward trend carried over from the previous year, but the lack of momentum to test the 2017-high (1.3535) may spark a move back towards the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3280 (50% retracement) to 1.3310 (38.2% retracement), which largely lines up with the April low (1.3295).

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

GBP/USD

1.2395

1.2478

1.2382

75

96

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Despite the initial spike higher immediately following NFPs, GBP/USD struggles to hold its ground as market participants shift their focus to the Underemployment Rate (U6), which slipped to an annualized 8.9% from 9.2% in February to mark the lowest reading since 2007; despite the mixed data prints, Fed Fund Futures continue to highlight a greater than 60% for a June rate-hike, and the deviating paths for monetary policy casts a long-term bearish outlook for Cable as the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be in no rush to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low.
  • The British Pound stands at risk of facing further losses over the days ahead as the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to narrow in March, while Average Hourly Earnings are projected to downtick to an annualized 2.1% from 2.2% in January; signs of slowing price/wage growth may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to retain the current policy throughout 2017 as central bank officials warn ‘monetary policy can respond, in either direction.’
  • Even though the BoE appears to be on course to complete the Corporate-Bond purchase program ahead of the 18-month timeline, Governor Mark Carney and Co. may attempt to buy more time at the next policy meeting on May 11 amid the mixed data prints coming out of the U.K. economy, and the central bank may keep the door open to further support the economy as the departure from the European Union (EU) clouds the outlook for growth and inflation.
  • With that said, downside targets are in focus for GBP/USD especially as the RSI struggles to preserve the bullish formation carried over from the previous month; a break/close below 1.2370 (50% expansion) opens up the next downside region of interest around 1.2270 (23.6% retracement) followed by 1.2100 (61.8% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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