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EUR/USD Halts Bearish Series; ECB on Course to End Easing-Cycle?

EUR/USD Halts Bearish Series; ECB on Course to End Easing-Cycle?

David Song,

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Flirts with Former Support Following FOMC Minutes; June Expectations Remain Unchanged.

- EUR/USD Fails to Extend Bearish Series; ECB on Course to End Easing-Cycle?

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CurrencyLastHighLowDaily Change (pip)Daily Range (pip)


NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • NZD/USD pares the decline from earlier this week as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes fail to lift interest rate expectations, but the pair may face range-bound conditions over the remainder of the month as it struggles to push back above the former-support zone around 0.7240 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7270 (78.6% retracement); broader outlook remains tilted to the downside as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bearish trends carried over from the previous year.
  • Even though Fed Fund Futures reflect limited expectations for a March rate-hike, central bank officials appear to be adopting a more hawkish tone, with Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (a 2017 voting-member) arguing monetary policy should be normalized ‘sooner rather than later;’ in turn, the diverging paths between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue to instill a long-term bearish outlook for NZD/USD as market participants still price a greater than 60% probability for a move in June.
  • Lack of momentum to hold above 0.7240 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7270 (78.6% retracement) may foster range-bound conditions over the remainder of the month, with near-term support for NZD/USD coming in around 0.7100 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7120 (50% retracement).
CurrencyLastHighLowDaily Change (pip)Daily Range (pip)


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • The lack of momentum to break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0470 (38.2% retracement) to 1.0500 (50% expansion) may foster a larger recovery in EUR/USD especially as the pair fails to extend the recent series of lower highs & lows; in turn, the euro-dollar may threaten the downward trending channel from earlier this month, with the first topside hurdle coming in around 1.0600 (23.6% expansion), which also lines up with the 50-Day SMA (1.0594).
  • Following the failed run at the December high (1.0873), the ongoing expansion in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet should keep the broader outlook for EUR/USD tilted to the downside, but an updated report from Germany’s central bank suggests the Governing Council is on course to conclude its easing-cycle as ‘annual profit was lower than in the previous year because the Bundesbank raised its risk provisions;’ even though President Jens Weidmann noted ‘an expansive monetary-policy stance is certainly appropriate,’ the central bank head argued expectations for a 2019 rate-hike ‘don’t sound absurd’ amid the ‘upward trajectory’ in the economic outlook.
  • With the ECB scheduled to narrow its asset-purchases to EUR 60B/month starting in April, central bank officials may increase their efforts to ward off a taper tantrum and further utilize its other non-standard measures as Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas argues ‘TLTROs are a very good instrument’ and goes onto say that the central bank can renew the bank loans if needed; in turn, the policy meeting scheduled for April 27 may garner increased attention as the ECB appears to be softening its dovish outlook.
  • In turn, EUR/USD may stage a larger recovery as an inverse head-and-shoulders formation appears to be taking shape, and a break/close above 1.0600 (23.6% expansion) may spur a move back towards the former support zone around 1.0660 (50% expansion) to 1.0680 (78.6% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.