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USD/JPY Initiates Higher Highs & Lows as Risk Appetite Picks Up

USD/JPY Initiates Higher Highs & Lows as Risk Appetite Picks Up

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Struggles Again Ahead of October Low (1.3006); 2016 Trend Remains in Play..

- USD/JPY Initiates Series of Higher Highs & Lows as Risk Appetite Picks Up.

DailyFX Table

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/CAD

1.3108

1.3131

1.3054

38

77

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • USD/CAD may stage another run the October low (1.3006) as it extends the series of lower highs & lows from earlier this week, but failure to test the monthly low (1.3019) will keep the broader outlook tilted to the topside as the pair preserves the upward trending channel carried over from the previous year; will also keep a close eye on crude as oil prices appear to be showing a similar dynamic and struggle to make another run at the $55 handle.
  • As ‘Canada’s economy continues to operate with material excess capacity,’ the Bank of Canada (BoC) may come under pressure to further embark on its easing-cycle especially as Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. warn ‘inflation in Canada has been lower than anticipated since October;’ in turn, the Federal Reserve’s February 1 interest rate decision may keep the bullish outlook in play as central bank officials see scope for two or three rate-hikes in 2017.
  • The string of failed attempts to close below 1.3030 (50% retracement) continues to instill a long-term bullish outlook for USD/CAD, with the first topside hurdle coming in around 1.3160 (61.8% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3290 (61.8% expansion) to 1.3350 (78.6% retracement).

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/JPY

114.70

114.86

113.05

142

181

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • The pickup in risk appetite may open up the topside targets for USD/JPY as it starts to carve a near-term series of higher highs & lows, and the pair may work its way back towards the monthly opening range amid the ongoing advance in the global benchmark equity indices; may see the bull-flag formation continue to take shape especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) threatens the downward trend carried over from the previous month, with a break of trendline resistance heightening the scope for a larger recovery in the dollar-yen exchange rate.
  • With Fed Fund Futures now projecting a 75% probability for a June rate-hike, the first interest rate decision for 2017 may keep the dollar afloat as Chair Janet Yellen and Co. endorse a hawkish outlook for monetary policy and argue the central bank is ‘closing in’ on its dual mandate; nevertheless, the mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback especially as the advance 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show the economy growing an annualized 2.2%, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, is anticipated to slow to an annualized 1.4% from 1.7% during the three-months through September.
  • The failed attempt to break/close below 112.40 (61.8% retracement) to 112.50 (38.2% retracement) keeps the topside targets in focus going into the end of the month, with the next topside hurdle coming in around 114.60 (23.6% expansion) followed by 116.10 (78.6% expansion) to 116.60 (38.2% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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