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USD/CAD Capped by Channel Resistance; 1.3300 Hurdle in Focus

USD/CAD Capped by Channel Resistance; 1.3300 Hurdle in Focus

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/CAD at Risk for Larger Pullback as Outlook Remains Clouded With Mixed Signals.

- Japanese Yen Weakness Persist With All Eyes on U.S. Presidential Election.

DailyFX

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/CAD

1.3337

1.3391

1.3325

27

66

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • Longer-term outlook remains constructive as USD/CAD preserves the upward trending channel from earlier this year, but the pair stands at risk for a near-term pullback following the failed attempt to break above 1.3460 (61.8% retracement), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains capped by the bearish formation carried over from the summer months; will keep a close eye on the former resistance-zone around 1.3300 (61.8% expansion) to 1.3310 (38.2% retracement) for support.
  • With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) preparing U.S. households and businesses for a December rate-hike, the cautious tone struck by the Bank of Canada (BoC) may continue to favor a bullish outlook going into the year ahead amid the deviating paths for monetary policy; however, the FOMC may continue to endorse a ‘gradual’ path in normalizing monetary policy as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, a 2017-voting member, remains concerned about undershooting the 2% target for inflation.
  • Will keep a close eye on the near-term range, with a break/close below 1.3300 (61.8% expansion) to 1.3310 (38.2% retracement) raising the risk for a larger pullback, with then next area of interest coming in around 1.32230 (23.6% retracement) followed by 1.3080 (38.2% retracement).

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USD/JPY

105.00

105.05

104.30

54

75

USD/JPY Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using Trading View

  • The Japanese Yen continues to lose ground against its U.S. counterparts as market participants eagerly wait for the results of the U.S. Presidential election; the near-term series of higher highs & lows may continue to take shape over the near-term should risk sentiment continue to improvement, with the 105.40 (50% retracement) hurdle in focus.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may keep the door open to further embark on its easing-cycle especially as the central bank pushes out its forecast of achieving the 2% target for inflation to fiscal-year 2018, but a further depreciation in the local currency may encourage Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. to carry its wait-and-see approach into 2017 as it helps to anchor inflation-expectations.
  • The bullish RSI formation continues to cast a mixed outlook for USD/JPY, with a closing price above the 105.40 (50% retracement) hurdle raising the risk for a material test of the downward trend from earlier this year, with the next topside region of interest coming in around 106.60 (38.2% retracement).
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since July 21, with sentiment hitting a 2016-extreme reading of +6.04 in September, while traders have been net-short USD/CAD since October 20.
  • USD/JPY SSI sits at +1.57 as 61% of traders are long, with short positions 18.4% lower from the previous week as open interest stands 12.0% below the monthly average.
  • USD/CAD SSI sits at -1.84 as 35% of traders are long, with short positions 16.1% lower from the previous week, while open interest stands 4.9% below the monthly average.
  • Market participation remains weak and appears to be waning as the focus shifts to the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

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Read More:

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Technical Focus: Copper Changing Color

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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