News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here:
  • The #Dollar has bottoming potential, but that is starting to lose weight as it fails to sustain any lift; next week could be a big one for #USD’s near-term outlook. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • I’d like to thank my followers, I just reached 5,000 which is quite a milestone for someone that isn’t a huge fan of the platform. Thank you all very much ❤️
  • Technology stocks continue to be a source of weakness for US equities, undermining risk appetite. Meanwhile, US-China tensions simmer beneath the surface creating uncertainty. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here:
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out:
  • #Oil prices saw a reprieve to the recent selling pressure but remain at risk while below downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the #WTI technical chart. Get your #commodities update from @MBForex here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • The growth-linked New Zealand Dollar may rise on the upcoming #RBNZ rate decision following rosy economic data. However, downside potential in the S&P 500 could offset $NZDUSD gains. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
Persistent Net-Long USD/JPY Positioning Instills Bearish Outlook

Persistent Net-Long USD/JPY Positioning Instills Bearish Outlook

2016-09-13 14:55:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Retail FX Sentiment Instills Bearish Outlook for USD/JPY as Positioning Gets Stretched Again.

- USDOLLAR Range to Persist Ahead of Key U.S. Data as Brainard Tames Bets for September-Hike.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.


USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • USD/JPY may make a more meaningful run at the monthly opening range as it appears to be preserving the upward trend carried over from August, but the recent series of lower highs & lows accompanied by the bearish trigger in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) undermines the rebound from 99.53 (August low) especially as the broader outlook for the exchange rate remains tilted to the downside.
  • Even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains under pressure to further embark on its easing cycle, with market participants looking for more non-standard measures in 2016, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach at the September 21 interest-rate decision as central bank officials deliver their ‘comprehensive assessment’ of the economy operating under the negative-interest rate policy (NIRP).
  • Move back below former resistance around 101.20 (50% expansion) may threaten the rebound from 99.53 (August low), which corresponds with the next downside area of interest coming in around 99.70 (61.8% expansion).
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the FX crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since July 22, with the ratio hitting a 2016-extreme during the previous month as it climbed to +5.28.
  • The ratio currently sits at +2.83 as 74% of traders are long, with short positions 38.3% lower from the previous week, while open interest stands 14.4% below the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

US Dollar Index






Persistent Net-Long USD/JPY Positioning Instills Bearish OutlookUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • The USDOLLAR stages a larger recovery ahead of the key U.S. data prints even as Fed Governor Lael Brainard argues for continued ‘prudence’ in normalizing monetary policy, while Jon Hilsenrath at the Wall Street Journal, who’s seen as the unofficial mouth piece of the Federal Reserve, warns ‘Divided Federal Reserve Is Inclined to Stand Pat;’ despite narrowing expectations for a September rate-hike, Fed Funds Futures continue to highlight a greater than 60% probability for higher borrowing-costs in December.
  • Market participants may put greater emphasis on U.S. Advance Retail Sales, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the U. of Michigan Confidence survey amid the mixed rhetoric coming out of the Federal Reserve, and a slew of positive developments may encourage Chair Janet Yellen and Co. to implement a hawkish-hold at the September 21 interest-rate decision as most central bank officials endorse an upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy.
  • A break/close back above 11,951 (38.2% retracement) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) may spur a move back towards the top of the recent range, with the next immediate target coming in at 11,989 (50% retracement), followed by 12,027 (August high).
DailyFX Chart

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Standing Head-and-Shoulders Above the Rest?

Risk Starts Week Lower as USD, JPY Gain Traction

DAX: Wobbles on ECB, Trend-line Comes into Focus

NZD/USD 2016 Rally at Risk Sub-7500 as Sentiment Stretches

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.