0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are some trading mistakes @nickcawley1 made during his career and what did he learn from them? Find out: https://t.co/XOTxEejF5O
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.62% Gold: -1.24% Silver: -3.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lBG9B5iYSk
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.19% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/jOgEIxjTiT
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.85% Germany 30: 0.84% FTSE 100: 0.65% Wall Street: 0.23% US 500: 0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/CIkPYnBu5L
  • #Gold prices are sinking, dipping back below the $2k/oz figure as inflation expectations continue to ease following Friday's US jobs data. The report showed faster job creation and higher wage growth, cooling Fed stimulus bets
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/D5upwqIsgB
  • 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change (JUL) Actual: 94.4K Expected: 10K Previous: -28.1K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
  • 🇬🇧 Employment Change (MAY) Actual: -220K Expected: -288K Previous: -126K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
  • 🇬🇧 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (JUN) Actual: -0.2% Expected: -0.1% Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
  • 🇬🇧 Average Earnings incl. Bonus (JUN) Actual: -1.2% Expected: -1.1% Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
AUD/USD to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA

AUD/USD to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA

2016-08-15 17:20:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA; Retail Sentiment Approaches 2016 Extreme.

- USDOLLAR Weakness to Persist on Slowing U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • Despite the recent series of lower highs & lows in AUD/USD, the pair may work its way back towards the 2016 high (0.7834) as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bullish trends carried over from May; will retain a constructive outlook over the near-term as long as aussie-dollar continues to hold above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7580 (50% expansion) to 0.7600 (23.6% retracement).
  • With Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens scheduled to depart from the central bank next month, the meeting minutes may spark a bullish reaction in the Australian dollar should the statement largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as Philip Lowe takes the helm on September 18; may see a more meaningful market reaction to the 2Q Wage Price Index as well as the Employment report for July as the central bank provides little forward-guidance.
  • Need a closing price above 0.7740 (78.6% expansion) to open up the 2016 high (0.7834) along with the next topside objective coming in around 0.7860 (61.8% expansion).
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail FX crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since August 2, with the ratio approaching the most extreme reading since March when the gauge for retail sentiment slipped to -2.17.
  • The ratio currently sits at -1.58 as 39% of traders are long, with short positions 6.0% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 8.2% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

US Dollar Index

11960.91

11974.18

11947.66

-0.05

47.53%

AUD/USD to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBAUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • The mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may produce additional headwinds for the USDOLLAR as the Atlanta Fed’s GDP model cut its third-quarter forecast to 3.5% from the 3.7% reading on August 9; may see the fresh comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, New York Fed President William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President John Williamsdrag on the greenback should the central bank officials endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.
  • Even though the headline reading for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to slow to an annualized 0.9% from 1.0% in June, stickiness in the core rate of inflation may keep the USDOLLAR within the current range as Fed Funds Futures continue to highlight a 12% probability for a September rate-hike.
  • With the USDOLLAR largely capped around 11,989 (50% retracement) will keep a close eye on the bottom of the recent range, with a break/close below 11,898 (50% retracement) opening up the next downside region of interest around 11,822 (23.6% retracement) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement).
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Macro Now Favoring a Breakdown?

Gold Prices Wedging into Consolidation Near Resistance

USDOLLAR Short Term Technical Update

S&P 500: Notches New Record High, Short-term Techs in Focus

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.