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Retail FX Positioning Points to Further AUD/USD Strength

Retail FX Positioning Points to Further AUD/USD Strength

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Retail FX Positioning Points to Further AUD/USD Strength; China CPI in Focus.

- Post-NFP USDOLLAR Advance Vulnerable to Subdued Fed Expectations.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • AUD/USD may make a more meaningful attempt to close above the near-term resistance zone around 0.7650 (78.6% retracement) as the pair climbs to a fresh monthly high and approaches the apex of the ascending triangle formation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from the end of June.
  • However, signs of easing price growth in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, may drag on AUD/USD as it highlights a slowing recovery in the Asia/Pacific region and puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further embark on its easing cycle in 2016.
  • A closing price above 0.7650 (78.6% retracement) may open up the next topside target around 0.7740 (78.6% expansion), but another failed attempt to clear the topside hurdle may produce a near-term correction in the exchange rate as it preserves the continuation pattern carried over from the end of May.
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since August 2, with the ratio approaching the most extreme reading since April as it slipped to -1.54 during the previous week.
  • The ratio currently sits at -1.48 as 40% of traders are long, with short positions 24.2% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 8.9% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

US Dollar Index

11985.41

11991.96

11971.55

0.09

36.73%

Retail FX Positioning Points to Further AUD/USD StrengthUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • The USDOLLAR remains resilient following the better-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report; may see the greenback stage a larger recovery as it carves a series of higher-lows in August.
  • Despite the ongoing improvement in the U.S. labor market, Fed Governor Jerome Powell sees a ‘very gradual’ path for interest rates amid the mixed data prints coming out of the economy, and it seems as though central bank officials remain in no rush to further normalize monetary policy as inflation expectations remain largely subdued; may see the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) buy more time at the September 21 interest-rate decision as officials look for evidence of stronger price growth.
  • Another close above 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) raises the risk for a further advance in the USDOLLAR, with the next topside region of interest coming in around 12,049 (78.6% retracement) to 12,064 (61.8% retracement).
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Read More:

S&P 500: Sharply Unchanged, Consolidating or Topping?

COT-British Pound Ownership Profile Warns of a Bottom

Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

USD/JPY July Recovery at Risk on Wait-and-See FOMC/BoJ Policy

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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