News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou reached deal with the US Dept of Justice to return her to China - Dow Jones
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester says: - sees US GDP in 2022 between 3.75 and 4% - Supports tapering in November and concluding over the first half of 2022 - After liftoff, accommodative policy needed for some time
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn't comment on the growth forecast or monetary policy in his introductory remarks
  • Kansas City Fed President Esther George says: - The labor market friction is fading barring a resurgence of virus - A 'normal' economy is likely to remain elusive for some time - Asset buying effects complicate the judging rate change plan
  • The risk rally that charged the S&P 500 and brethren post-FOMC has stalled into Friday's open. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses what is driving markets post Fed👇
  • 🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (AUG) Actual: 1.5% Previous: 6.4%
  • China has announced that they will be cracking down on Cryptocurrency mining and while this has been a reoccurring theme, regardless of that fact Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • Looks like they couldn't hold the 8.8000 line for $USDTRY. Record high exchange rate (favoring Dollar over Turkish Lira) despite a still-17.75 percentage point differential in their benchmark rates...
  • 🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (AUG) Actual: 1.5% Previous: 1%
  • RT @elerianm: Thank you @LizAnnSonders for this and, more generally, for all your informative and insightful tweets. Two things to add from…
USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Holds Near Extreme Ahead of NFP Report

USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Holds Near Extreme Ahead of NFP Report

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Holds Near Extreme Even as BoJ Endorses Wait-and-See Approach.

- USDOLLAR Comes Up Against Former Support Ahead of NFP Report.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.


USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • Even though USD/JPY holds a narrow range going into the end of the week, the failure to preserve the upward trend from June raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate, with the pair at risk of working its way back towards the June low (98.78) as it appears to have carved a lower-high during the previous month.
  • Even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the door open to further embark on its easing cycle, recent comments by Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata suggests the central bank may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next interest-rate decision on September 21 as the board member argues the bank does ‘not have any specific future directions of monetary policy at this moment.’
  • With USD/JPY at risk of carving a lower-low, a break of the June low (98.78) may open up the next downside target around 98.30 (38.2% & 78.6% retracements).
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since July 22, with the ratio hitting an extreme reading in July as it climbed to +5.28 to mark the highest reading since 2012.
  • The ratio currently sits at +3.83 as 79% of traders are long, with long positions 41.6% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 15.0% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

US Dollar Index






USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Holds Near Extreme Ahead of NFP ReportUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • The USDOLLAR may mount a larger rebound as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 180K in July, but a soft wage growth figure may drag on interest-rate expectations as the Federal Reserve continues to warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’
  • Fed officials may come under increased pressure to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2016 especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ but the central bank may attempt to buy more time at the next quarterly policy meeting in September as Fed Funds Futures show a 12% probability for a rate-hike next month.
  • The USDOLLAR appears to be testing former-support around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) for new resistance, with a failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap to encourage a bearish outlook for the greenback.
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Sharply Unchanged, Consolidating or Topping?

COT-British Pound Ownership Profile Warns of a Bottom

Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

USD/JPY July Recovery at Risk on Wait-and-See FOMC/BoJ Policy

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.