We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @YuanTalks: #China temporarily suspend additional tariffs of either 10% or 5% on some #US goods scheduled to take effect on Dec 15, said…
  • The gold-silver ratio is simple. It is the number of silver ounces you would need to trade to receive one ounce of #gold at current market prices. Find out how you can use this in your trading strategy here:https://t.co/kh5DZvv5ib $XAUUSD https://t.co/eJGODpfTNc
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 https://t.co/DoVBd1l1oO
  • #Silver is a precious metal commodity that investors use as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. Find out what are some strategies and tips to trade silver here: https://t.co/k4tVcFuwxW #CommoditieswithDailyFX https://t.co/zXCSmH2HLX
  • Markets are trying to maintain a bullish tilt as a new week rolls around, a look ahead at the charts of the #Dow, #DAX, and #FTSE. Get your technical analysis on major world indices from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/bYjRDvQsdM https://t.co/mbg0rUbv3K
  • Trade conflict is clearly awful for the broad world economy, but some countries are already benefiting from it. More stand to do so. Spotting them early could be profitable. Get your update on the #tradewar from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/og0VAPAqwm https://t.co/xB8hYUj4OA
  • #Gold prices may suffer if better-than-expected US economic data and progress on US-China trade negotiations cool 2020 Fed rate cuts and alleviate demand for anti-fiat hedges. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/3ula2sUpqL $gld https://t.co/2iZwxcm3wP
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/KCZ48rDnhy
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tTXcw1b7Tp
  • RT @dlacalle_IA: ... “Temporary” Fed plans to double repo market intervention to avoid cash crunch https://t.co/j6N3Qmo6HX
Focus Shifts to AUD/USD Amid Bets for RBA Rate-Cut

Focus Shifts to AUD/USD Amid Bets for RBA Rate-Cut

2016-07-29 15:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Preserves Near-Term Bullish Formation Ahead of RBA Rate-Decision.

- USDOLLAR Extends Losses as 2Q GDP Report Disappoints.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • Even though AUD/USD largely preserves the upward trend carried over from the end of May, the near-term outlook remains clouded amid the divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI); need a break of the bearish formation in the oscillator to favor a larger advance in the exchange rate.
  • Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision on August 2 may produce near-term headwinds for the Aussie should Governor Glenn Stevens and Co. further embark on the easing cycle; according to a Bloomberg News survey, 20 of the 25 economists polled forecast the central bank to reduce the official cash rate to a fresh record-low of 1.50% from the current 1.75%.
  • A bullish RSI trigger accompanied by a break/closing price above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7580 (50% retracement) to 0.7600 (23.6% retracement) may open up the topside targets, with the next region of interest coming in around 0.7650 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7676 (July high).
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows a bit of back and forth in retail positioning going into the end of the month, with the FX crowd flipping net-short AUD/USD earlier this morning.
  • The ratio currently sits at -1.01 as 50% of traders are long, with long positions 12.9% lower from the previous week, while open interest stands 2.4% below the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

US Dollar Index

11954.88

12049.49

11954.88

-0.83

175.95%

Focus Shifts to AUD/USD Amid Bets for RBA Rate-CutUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • The USDOLLAR extends the decline from earlier this week as the advance 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report falls short of market expectations; even though the greenback fails to break the July low (11,953), the reserve currency stands at risk of facing additional headwinds as the weaker-than-expected recovery undermines the Federal Reserve’s scope to further normalize monetary policy in 2016.
  • Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeps the door open to raise the benchmark interest rate at the next quarterly policy meeting in September, central bank officials may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach ahead of the U.S. Presidential election in November amid the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal outlook.
  • A break/close below 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) may open up the next downside target around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,914 (38.2% retracement).
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Sharply Unchanged, Consolidating or Topping?

COT-British Pound Ownership Profile Warns of a Bottom

Post-Brexit NZDUSD Support Vulnerable to Weak NZ Trade Balance

USD/JPY July Recovery at Risk on Wait-and-See FOMC/BoJ Policy

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.