We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇬🇧 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (MAR), Actual: -9 Expected: -15 Previous: -7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-03-30
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (MAR) due at 23:01 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: -15 Previous: -7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-03-30
  • $EURUSD chart positioning hints the Euro may be running out of steam following a spirited recovery but sentiment studies continue to argue for the upside.Get your EUR/USD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/zp2oz1G2QZ https://t.co/YsxURDW4aT
  • Frankly, I'm surprised the 'equity market related economic uncertainty index' the Fed measures isn't higher. Apologies for using the Wilshire 5000. They don't have significant SPX or Dow historical https://t.co/CioVpmmdv9
  • Market snapshot: #NZD up over 0.5% vs G10 FX heading into Asia's Tuesday trading session [delayed].
  • 🇳🇿 NZD Building Permits (MoM) (FEB), Actual: 4.7% Expected: N/A Previous: -2.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-03-30
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 NZD Building Permits (MoM) (FEB) due at 21:45 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: -2.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-03-30
  • USTR Lighthizer says G20 should stay focused on pandemic, not try to use it to push other agendas in trade or elsewhere #Tradewar
  • In a positive development, the S&P 500 did not hit limit down after this week’s open for US equity futures. Get your #S&P500 technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/7LDq88mYPE https://t.co/O6njknUzvV
  • Just launched - a major face lift to the @DailyFX education section 👇 https://t.co/i0PDKbWip3
USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Hits Extreme Following Wait-and-See BoJ

USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Hits Extreme Following Wait-and-See BoJ

2016-06-16 16:15:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Hits Fresh Near-Term Extreme Following Wait-and-See BoJ.

- USDOLLAR Pares Post-FOMC Losses; Outlook Mired by Waning Interest-Rate Expectations.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.


USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • USD/JPY extends the decline from earlier this week as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) preserves a wait-and-see approach in June, while risk appetite deteriorates, with the global benchmark equity indices under pressure; will continue to watch the downside targets especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dips into oversold territory for the first time since April.
  • Despite lingering expectations for more BoJ easing, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may retain the current policy at the next rate-decision on July 29 as the central bank continues to monitor the impact of the negative interest-rate policy (NIRP) on the real economy.
  • A closing price below the Fibonacci overlap around 104.80 (78.6% expansion) to 105.30 (50% retracement) may open up the next downside target around 103.20 (38.2% retracement), which is followed by 102.10 (100% expansion).
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail sentiment has pushed to near-term extremes following the BoJ meeting, with the ratio working its way towards the +4.00 mark.
  • The ratio currently sits at +3.44 as 77% of traders are long, with long positions 9.1% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 13.5% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

US Dollar Index






USD/JPY Retail Sentiment Hits Extreme Following Wait-and-See BoJUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

Despite the limited market reaction to the mixed batch of U.S. data, the USDOLLAR appears to be carving a near-term top as amid the string of failed attempt to test the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement); will continue to watch the downside targets as the greenback largely preserves the bearish trend from earlier this year.

  • With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting unanimously to retain its current policy in June, Fed Funds Futures now show a less than 10% probability for a rate-hike at the next rate decision on July 27 as central bank narrows its growth forecast and projects a more shallow path for interest rates.
  • Will keep a close eye on the downside targets, with a break/close below 11,836 (61.8% retracement) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement) raising the risk for a move back towards 11,745 (50% retracement) to 11,759 (23.6% retracement).
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

S&P 500: Confluence of Technical Events Bolsters Case for the Bears

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: A Wild Open To June Is Set To Get Wilder

DailyFX Technical Focus: Flying Kiwi

NZD/USD: RBNZ Breakout Approaching Initial Resistance Targets

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.