We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0809 S2: 1.0858 S1: 1.0881 R1: 1.093 R2: 1.0957 R3: 1.1007 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The Hang Seng suffered its worst day since 2015 on Friday on China anti-sedition proposal. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/CMQ1UTewiF https://t.co/FSeumhbZn3
  • Trump says he will announce action on China before the week is over - BBG
  • Alright, so a breakout higher then in my #WallStreet index despite negative RSI divergence. This may have opened the door to revisiting peaks in average US stock prices from early March. Rising support from mid-May seems to be guiding the index higher (pink line) https://t.co/2dbegpLr7v
  • BOC's Poloz: - Policy from fiscal and monetary side set base for economic recovery - Uncertainty around virus remains -BBG
  • 🇰🇷 Business Confidence Actual: 49 Previous: 52 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 1.69% 🇳🇿NZD: 1.60% 🇨🇦CAD: 1.50% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.78% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.65% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/QHpL43u1ca
  • archive of today's webinar ready to go https://t.co/dCPU3X7BvY
  • Trump says virus vaccines and remedies are going to be here 'very shortly' - BBG
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 Business Confidence due at 21:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 52 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
AUD/USD Risks Larger Recovery Ahead of RBA Rate-Decision

AUD/USD Risks Larger Recovery Ahead of RBA Rate-Decision

2016-06-03 16:15:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Breaks Out of Near-Term Range; Risks Larger Recovery Ahead of RBA Rate-Decision.

- USDOLLAR Searches for Support Following Dismal NFP Report; Fed Rhetoric in Focus.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

AUD/USD appears to be making a more meaningful attempt to break out of the near-term range, with a close above 0.7240 (100% expansion) to 0.7270 (38.2% retracement) raising the risk for a larger recovery; longer-term outlook remains tilted to the downside as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bearish formation carried over from March.

  • Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.75% in June, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may drag on the aussie should Governor Glenn Stevens and Co. keep the door open to further assist with the rebalancing of the real economy, with Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) still highlighting expectations for another 25bp rate-cut over the next 12-months.
  • A closing price above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7240 (100% expansion) to 0.7270 (38.2% retracement) may spur a move back towards former support around 0.7490 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7500 (61.8% expansion).
DailyFX SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since May 3, with the ratio hitting a near-term extreme at the end of May as it climbed to +2.25.
  • The ratio currently sits at +1.95 as 66% of traders are long, with short positions 5.4% lower from the previous week, while open interest stands 3.9% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

US Dollar Index

11859.08

11978.1

11844.25

-0.92

312.81%

AUD/USD Risks Larger Recovery Ahead of RBA Rate-Decision USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created by David Song

  • The USDOLLAR may face additional headwinds over the near-term as the dismal Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report drags on interest rate expectations, with Fed Funds Futures now showing a less than 10% probability for a rate-hike at the June policy meeting.
  • Will keep a close eye on the slew of central bank rhetoric due out over the coming days as Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Chair Janet Yellen are scheduled to speak, with cautious comments from central bank officials raising the risk for a further decline in the greenback as market participants push out bets for higher borrowing-costs.
  • The Fibonacci overlap around 11,836 (61.8% retracement) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement) appears to be offering near-term support, but a break/close below the region may open up the next downside target around 11,745 (50% retracement) to 11,759 (23.6% retracement).
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Read More:

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Another Monthly Opening Range Worth Watching

Gold Prices in Free Fall- Shorts at Risk into NFP

EUR/GBP Breakdown Eyes Critical Support at 7520

GBP/USD Successful Re-Test of Former Resistance Line

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.