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USD/JPY Downside Targets on Radar Ahead of Japan CPI Report

USD/JPY Downside Targets on Radar Ahead of Japan CPI Report

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Preserves 2016 Bear Trend; Downside Targets on Radar Ahead of Japan CPI Report.

- USDOLLAR Extends Losses on Lackluster Durable Goods Orders Report; 1Q GDP in Focus.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY may continue to retrace the advance from earlier this month as the pair preserves the downward trend from earlier this year, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) makes another failed attempt to break out of the bearish formation carried over from 2015.
  • Even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the door open to further embark on its easing cycle, stickiness in Japan’s core-core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may encourage the central bank to retain its current policy at the next interest-rate decision on June 16.
  • Failure to retain the near-term bullish formations in both price & the RSI raises the risk for a larger decline going into the end of May, with a break of the weekly range opening up the next downside target around 107.90 (161.8% expansion) to 108.50 (50% expansion), followed by 107.00 (61.8% expansion).
USD/JPY SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the FX crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since the BoJ introduced the negative-interest rate policy (NIRP) on January 29, with the ratio hitting an extreme back in April as it climbed to +3.50.
  • The ratio currently sits at +1.44 as 59% of traders are long, with short positions 11.5% higher from the previous week even as open interest stands 3.1% below the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11943.21

11961.03

11921.34

-0.10

90.82%

USD/JPY Downside Targets on Radar Ahead of Japan CPI ReportUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The USDOLLAR extends the decline from the previous day following the lackluster U.S. Durable Goods Orders report, and it appears as though the greenback has made a unsuccessful attempt to break out of the bearish trend carried over from earlier this year as it fails to preserve the weekly range.
  • Nevertheless, a meaningful upward revision in the preliminary 1Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may foster a bullish reaction in the greenback as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
  • The string of failed attempts to break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) may spur a move back towards the first downside target coming in around 11,898 (50% retracement), followed by 11,836 (61.8% retracement) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement).
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Read More:

USD/CHF Rally? It Just MAY

Gold Bulls Look to CPI, Fed Minutes for Solace

DailyFX Technical Focus: Short Term S&P and Gold Analysis

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Time For Bulls To Prove Their Worth

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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