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AUD/USD Tags Former Resistance Ahead of RBA Minutes, Labor Report

AUD/USD Tags Former Resistance Ahead of RBA Minutes, Labor Report

2016-05-13 17:00:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- AUD/USD to Pare Losses on Less Cautious RBA Minutes, Upbeat Employment Report.

- USDOLLAR Approaches Fibonacci Overlap, Channel Resistance on Upbeat U.S. Data.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD is coming up against a key area of interest as it comes up against former resistance around ; will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it hovers above oversold territory.
  • Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the benchmark interest rate to a fresh record-low of 1.75%, the policy meeting minutes may dampen expectations for additional monetary support should Governor Glenn Stevens and Co. largely endorse a wait-and-see approach over the foreseeable future, while the Employment report is anticipated to show another 12.0K rise in job growth.
  • A break/close below 0.7240 (100% expansion) to 0.7270 (38.2% retracement), which coincides with the 200-Day SMA (0.7258) may open up the next downside target around 0.7180 (61.8% retracement).
AUD/USD SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since May 3, with the ratio hitting a near-term extreme earlier this month as it approaches +2.00.
  • The ratio currently sits at +1.82 as 65% of traders are long, with long positions 11.7% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 3.7% below the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11945.88

11959.69

11901.25

0.37

99.86%

AUD/USD Tags Former Resistance Ahead of RBA Minutes, Labor ReportUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The USDOLLAR has come up against a key Fibonacci overlap after closing above 11,898 (50% retracement); will also keep a close eye on the downward trend from earlier this year as the greenback approaches channel resistance.
  • Despite the slew of positive U.S. data prints, Fed Funds Futures continue to show a less than 10% probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the next quarterly policy meeting in June.
  • Need a break/close above 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) to favor a larger recovery in the USDOLLAR.
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Read More:

Record Trend Following Long Position in Gold

AUD/CAD Into Key Support- Monthly Opening Range In Focus

US Dollar Bear Trap within an Even Bigger Bull Trap?!

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Has It Bottomed?

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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