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AUD/USD Retail Sentiment Approaches Extreme Ahead of China CPI

AUD/USD Retail Sentiment Approaches Extreme Ahead of China CPI

2016-05-09 17:50:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Risks Further Losses on Dismal China Data; Retail Sentiment Hits Fresh Extremes.

- USDOLLAR Faces Near-Term Hurdle Ahead of U.S. Data, Fed Rhetoric.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD stands at risk for further losses as it breaks down from the upward trend from earlier this year, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to carve a bearish formation, with the oscillator coming up against oversold territory; break below 30 may highlight a pickup in the downward momentum.
  • Even though China, Australia’s largest trading partner, is anticipated to face sticky price growth in April, a dismal Consumer Price Index (CPI) report may weigh on the aussie as it puts increased pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further assist with the rebalancing of the real economy.
  • Failure to hold above former resistance around 0.7380 (50% retracement) to 0.7390 (78.6% expansion) may open up the next downside target around 0.7240 (100% expansion) to 0.7270 (38.2% retracement).
AUD/USD SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the FX crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since May 3, with the ratio hitting near-term extremes as it works its way towards +2.00.
  • The ratio currently sits at +1.71 as 63% of traders are long, with long positions 29.8% higher from the previous week even as open interest stands 1.9% below the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11903.64

11905.66

11855.12

0.40

83.46%

AUD/USD Retail Sentiment Approaches Extreme Ahead of China CPIUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, the USDOLLAR extends the advance from the previous week, with the greenback at risk for a larger recover especially as the RSI breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from the end of February.
  • Despite waning expectations for a June Fed rate-hike, a series of improved data prints (NFIB Small Business Optimism survey, Wholesale Inventories & Sales and JOLTS Job Openings) accompanied by a more hawkish tone from New York Fed President William Dudley, a permanent voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may encourage a further advance in the greenback as market participants bring forward expectations for higher borrowing-costs.
  • Need a closing price above 11,898 (50% retracement) to open up the next topside region of interest around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement).
AUD/USD Retail Sentiment Approaches Extreme Ahead of China CPI

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AUD/USD – Will the Real Trend Please Stand Up?

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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