We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.1078 S2: 1.1152 S1: 1.1193 R1: 1.1267 R2: 1.13 R3: 1.1374 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/MCdNLAjJpu
  • Has the ECB been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/Znozwxgcak
  • Texas COVID-19 cases increase at 2.4%, same as prior 7-day average - BBG
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.91% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.64% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.59% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.17% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/j3MpbrNtG4
  • RT @SecPompeo: I applaud @Nasdaq’s actions to require all listed firms comply with the same auditing and inspection rules, especially as re…
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.88% Silver: 0.43% Oil - US Crude: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/s7unTde0G5
  • The #FTSE 100 surged to its highest level since early June on Wednesday after the equity index pierced a longstanding technical barrier around 6,200. Get your #FTSE market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/uFaYFaPGz2 https://t.co/mNnlGDksJn
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.30%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.93%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/kZcqWecOdG
  • The $EURUSD's climb continues at an exceptional pace. It is on course for the biggest three-week rally since May 2015 (the bottoming after the 2014 collapse) https://t.co/AbDLQ07D95
EUR/USD Clears 1.1500; Retail FX Crowd Remains Stubbornly Short

EUR/USD Clears 1.1500; Retail FX Crowd Remains Stubbornly Short

2016-05-02 16:55:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

-EUR/USD Clears 1.1500; Retail FX Crowd Remains Stubbornly Short.

- USDOLLAR Downside Targets Remain in View as Search for Support Continues.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

EUR/USD

USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD looks poised to extend the rally from the previous week as the pair breaks out of the wedge/triangle formation; will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it approaches overbought territory, with a break above 70 raising the risk for a further advance in the exchange rate.
  • Even though European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi keeps the door open to further embark on the easing cycle, comments from central bank hawks Sabine Lautenschlager and Jens Weidmann may drag on expectations for more non-standard measures as the Governing Council comes under scrutiny.
  • Break/close above 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion) may open up the next topside targets around 1.1713 (August 2015 high), followed by 1.1760 (61.8% retracement).
EUR/USD SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail sentiment is back at extremes as the ratio slipped to -2.50 in April, with the crowd net-short EUR/USD since the ECB’s March 10 meeting.
  • The ratio currently stands at -2.46 as 29% of traders remain long, with short positions 25.9% higher from the previous week, while open interest stands 5.6% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11715.50

11754.85

11714.15

-0.27

69.14%

EUR/USD Clears 1.1500; Retail FX Crowd Remains Stubbornly Short USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the mixed market reaction to the weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing survey, the recent series of lower highs & lows in the USDOLLAR raises the risk for a further decline in the index; would like to see the RSI break into oversold territory to favor a further decline amid the failed attempts to break below 30 throughout 2016.
  • Will keep a close eye on U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) expectations as the Fed anticipates a further improvement in the labor market, but more of the same from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan may drag on the greenback as the central bank remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • A closing price below 11,745 (50% retracement) may open up the next downside targets coming in around 11,623 (100% expansion) to 11,646 (61.8% retracement).
DailyFX Calendar

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Read More:

Emotions Run High in Silver Trade

SPX500 Technical Analysis: Higher-Low Ahead of US Earnings

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Who’s Happier? Bears or Central Bankers

AUD/USD – Will the Real Trend Please Stand Up?

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.