We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #DidYouKnow the global trade volumes dropped by close to 10% amid the Great Recession. Want to know your #tradewars history? Get it here: https://t.co/f4loFVimeY https://t.co/dsm02kQo7T
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.72%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 87.30%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/JPJaD7lqOJ
  • US Dollar ASEAN Ahead: IDR, MYR, Trade Talks, Bank of Indonesia #ASEAN #USD #tradewars - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/11/18/US-Dollar-ASEAN-Ahead-IDR-MYR-Trade-Talks-Bank-of-Indonesia.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/KdtdFBrePr
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/uZlNJOzt15
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.04% Wall Street: -0.06% US 500: -0.06% France 40: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MxO1wOfF99
  • Over the past 30 days, #ARS, #COP and the #MXN have been the best performing Latin American currencies vs. USD with 6.91%, 1.04% and 0.99% total returns.
  • #KRW, #PHP and the #JPY are expected to be the most active Asian currencies vs #USD with 1-week implied volatilities at 6.75, 4.92 and 4.60 respectively
  • The #JapaneseYen has posted some rare gains against the #USDollar on its daily chart, but important channel support still holds on an intraday basis. Keep a close eye on it now. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usd-jpy/2019/11/18/Japanese-Yen-Gains-But-USDJPY-Up-Channel-Remains-Key.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Cottle&utm_campaign=twr #USDJPY, #AUDJPY, #JPY
  • RT @FactSet: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX is 17.5, which is above the 5-year average (16.6) and the 10-year average (14.9). http…
  • Overnight index swaps are pricing in an 34.2% probability of a RBNZ rate cut during its next meeting on 02/12/2020 #NZD
USD Hit by Soft CPI- NZD/USD Interest Declines Ahead of China GDP

USD Hit by Soft CPI- NZD/USD Interest Declines Ahead of China GDP

2016-04-14 16:30:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Struggles Amid Soft CPI Report- U. of Michigan on Tap.

- NZD/USD Vulnerable to Slowing China GDP Amid Failed Test of March High.

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11878.81

11919.14

11864.07

-0.06

95.72%

USD Hit by Soft CPI- NZD/USD Interest Declines Ahead of China GDPUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The USDOLLAR pares the overnight advance following the softer-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with both the headline and the core rate of inflation narrowing in March; may increase the Fed’s scope to further delay the normalization cycle.
  • Nevertheless, the near-term series of higher highs & lows may encourage a larger rebound especially as the U. of Michigan Confidence survey is rebound to 92.0 from 91.0 in March.
  • Despite the bearish tilt in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the failed attempts to close 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement) may highlight a larger rebound, with a closing price above 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) raising the risk for a further near-term advance in the USDOLLAR.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • NZD/USD appears to have marked a failed run at the March high (0.6965), with the New Zealand dollar at risk for further weakness as the slowdown in the region’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for manufacturing fuels bets for additional monetary support.
  • With China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report anticipated to highlight a slower rate of growth for the first-quarter of 2016, the slowdown in global growth may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to further embark on its easing cycle as Governor Graeme Wheeler endorses a dovish outlook for monetary policy.
  • In light of the recent weakness, the next downside hurdle comes in around 0.6690 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6710 (50% retracement), with interim support coming in around 0.6570 (100% expansion) to 0.6590 (38.2% retracement).
NZD/USD SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows increased volatility in retail positioning, with the FX crowd flipping back net-short NZD/USD on April 12.
  • The ratio currently stands at -1.13 as 47% of traders are long, with long positions narrowing 22.4% ahead of the weekend, while open interest stands 6.4% below the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USD Hit by Soft CPI- NZD/USD Interest Declines Ahead of China GDP

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Read More:

COT-Small Traders Hold Largest AUD Long Position Since April 2013

GBP/USD – Waiting For a Catalyst

DailyFX Technical Focus: What is the USDOLLAR Index Doing?

Key Few Weeks for Silver Coming Up

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.