We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Ireland's Varadkar says it would be difficult but not impossible to negotiate UK-EU trade deal by the end of 2020 $GBP
  • Macro data from around the world have long attested to the urgent need for a trade settlement between the US and China. Increasingly the corporate numbers are saying the same. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/Qon7QUO80c https://t.co/8iT042HFGm
  • Wibur Ross states that US President Trump has not yet indicated any change on December 15th tariffs on Chinese imports
  • EUR/USD Pauses Downtrend Move - Euro vs USD Dollar Price Technical Analysis More details in the link below: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2019/11/15/EURUSD-Pauses-Downtrend-Move-Euro-vs-USD-Dollar-Price-Technical-Analysis-MK.html?CHID=9&QPID=917714 https://t.co/faY2aRIfBU
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.63%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.27%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/H558iCcR7c
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/N6BzT0OmDt
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.34% Gold: -0.35% Silver: -0.75% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/b2XEW6eNE6
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rrpTvsZhDo
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.23% France 40: 0.23% Wall Street: 0.22% Germany 30: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/sXDfEwfD5c
  • LIVE NOW! Currency Strategist @PaulRobinsonFX runs through his favorite charts and potential set-ups for the week ahead in the FX and CFDs market here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/108721147?CHID=9&QPID=917720
EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Hits Extreme Ahead of Fed, ECB Minutes

EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Hits Extreme Ahead of Fed, ECB Minutes

2016-04-04 17:35:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Hits Near-Term Extremes Ahead of ECB Minutes.

- USDOLLAR Outlook Mired by Mixed Data; ISM Non-Manufacturing on Tap.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the recent series of higher-lows in EUR/USD, the pair may continue to come off of the 2016 high (1.1437) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns around ahead of overbought territory.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes may drag on the exchange rate as Governing Council officials continue to endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy, with chief economist Peter Praet warning that ‘allowing inflation to re-anchor downwards comes with a high risk of credibility losses for the central bank.’
  • Failure to break/close above 1.1420 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1460 (78.6% retracement) raises the risk for a larger pullback in EUR/USD, with the key downside region of interest coming in around 1.1090 (5% retracement) to 1.1110 (50% retracement).
EUR/USD SSI
  • Despite the near-term advance, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 10, with the ratio hitting fresh near-term extremes as it slipped towards -2.50 to mark the lowest reading since August.
  • Retail sentiment remains near the extreme reading, with the ratio currently sitting at -2.33 as 30% of traders are long, while open interest stands 15.1% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11888.91

11918.08

11879.76

-0.05

59.18%

EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Hits Extreme Ahead of Fed, ECB MinutesUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The USDOLLAR may continue to give back the rebound from March as the ongoing batch of mixed data prints drags on interest-rate expectations; will keep a close eye on the RSI as it preserves the bearish formation from earlier this year.
  • Fresh rhetoric from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Kansas City Fed Esther George and Chair Janet Yellen may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as the central bank remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy, but a marked uptick in the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey may spur a near-term rebound in the dollar as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.
  • Nevertheless, the near-term outlook for the USDOLLAR remains tilted to the downside, with a break/close 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement) raising the risk for a move towards 11,745 (50% retracement) to 11,759 (23.6% retracement).
EUR/USD Retail Sentiment Hits Extreme Ahead of Fed, ECB Minutes

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Read More:

S&P 500 - Rip-roar Recovery Inches Market Closer to Major Resistance

Largest Long Position for Gold Trend Followers Since November 2012

USD/MXN – Big Support Test Coming Up

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: All Eyes on 1.2835

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.