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NZD/USD Struggles Following Daily Auction- Retail Longs Jump 26%

NZD/USD Struggles Following Daily Auction- Retail Longs Jump 26%

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Struggles on Weak Dairy Auction- Balance of Payments Report on Tap.

- USDOLLAR Remains Bid Ahead of FOMC Despite Mixed Data.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.


NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • NZD/USD extends the decline from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision as the central bank continues to endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy, while the Global Dairy Trade auction showed a 0.8% decline in Whole Milk Powder prices.
  • Even though New Zealand’s Balance of Payment (BoP) is anticipated to show a narrowing Current Account deficit, the 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may spur additional headwinds for the kiwi as the region is anticipated to grow an annualized 2.1% following the 2.3% expansion during the three-months through September.
  • As a result, long-term outlook for NZD/USD remains tilted to the downside especially as RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler keeps the door open to further insulate the economy, but need to see a break/close below the 0.6550 (50% retracement) to 0.6570 (1000% expansion) zone to favor a further decline in the exchange rate.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-short NZD/USD since February 16, with the ratio hitting a fresh extreme in March as it slipped to -1.75.
  • Nevertheless, retail sentiment remains off of near-term extremes as it narrows to -1.04, with 49% of traders now long amid a 26.1% jump in long positions from the previous week.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






NZD/USD Struggles Following Daily Auction- Retail Longs Jump 26%USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the mixed data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy, the USDOLLAR extends the advance from earlier this week; may see range-bound prices ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision as market participants gauge the outlook for monetary policy.
  • The updated forecasts for growth, inflation and the interest rate is likely to take center stage as Chair Janet Yellen and Co. are largely anticipated to retain their current policy; may see the FOMC stay on course to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2016 as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment’ while central bank officials remain confident in achieving the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.
  • Despite the rebound from the 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) zone, the USDOLLAR may struggle to get back above former support around 12,050 (50% retracement) should the FOMC show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle.
NZD/USD Struggles Following Daily Auction- Retail Longs Jump 26%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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