News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCAD big test, right at the Sept. high https://t.co/D9baX3BGXf https://t.co/Sg2ySGIIY8
  • just about an hour later $USDCAD https://t.co/D9baX3BGXf https://t.co/B0c71AkZTl
  • Hedging Evergrande (3333 HK) is reportedly a near impossible task
  • Given there is a substantial risk from China's Evergrande situation with a possible technical default at the start of next week, I'll be watching Bitcoin as a 'risk' measure over the weekend. Here versus SPX as Shanghai Comp is 'tended to' https://t.co/OoudsWHFPy
  • The latest batch of US economic data suggests the economy is weathering delta variant concerns, increasing odds for a Fed taper announcement shortly. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/aioT8UU4IJ https://t.co/BhMSqkkV0E
  • $USD support hold at higher low $DXY now breakout after U of Mich Focus now shifts to the Fed for next week's rate decision. Quarterly meeting, so also getting an updated dot plot matrix and SEP https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/09/17/USD-price-action-us-dollar-rallies-to-sept-high-focus-shifts-to-the-Fed.html https://t.co/oJdrBqBkfp https://t.co/EsSn4XEB1g
  • another hit at resistance $ES $SPY $SPX that zone is 5 for 5 this week, catching resistance each day m-f (this morning was pre-us open) https://t.co/cchd5Rr92S https://t.co/wwXugBgE8m
  • US headline consumer sentiment survey from UofM picks up but less than expected 71 vs 72 expected and 70.3 previously. Expectations component advances to 67.1 from 65.1. Inflation forecasts still pushing their highs. Tepid Dollar and emini $SPX futures response thus far
  • 🇺🇸 Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (SEP) Actual: 4.7% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-17
  • 🇺🇸 Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel (SEP) Actual: 2.9% Previous: 2.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-17
NZD/USD Struggles Following Daily Auction- Retail Longs Jump 26%

NZD/USD Struggles Following Daily Auction- Retail Longs Jump 26%

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Struggles on Weak Dairy Auction- Balance of Payments Report on Tap.

- USDOLLAR Remains Bid Ahead of FOMC Despite Mixed Data.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • NZD/USD extends the decline from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision as the central bank continues to endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy, while the Global Dairy Trade auction showed a 0.8% decline in Whole Milk Powder prices.
  • Even though New Zealand’s Balance of Payment (BoP) is anticipated to show a narrowing Current Account deficit, the 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may spur additional headwinds for the kiwi as the region is anticipated to grow an annualized 2.1% following the 2.3% expansion during the three-months through September.
  • As a result, long-term outlook for NZD/USD remains tilted to the downside especially as RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler keeps the door open to further insulate the economy, but need to see a break/close below the 0.6550 (50% retracement) to 0.6570 (1000% expansion) zone to favor a further decline in the exchange rate.
NZD/USD SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-short NZD/USD since February 16, with the ratio hitting a fresh extreme in March as it slipped to -1.75.
  • Nevertheless, retail sentiment remains off of near-term extremes as it narrows to -1.04, with 49% of traders now long amid a 26.1% jump in long positions from the previous week.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12032.74

12041.78

12008.15

0.20

58.83%

NZD/USD Struggles Following Daily Auction- Retail Longs Jump 26%USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the mixed data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy, the USDOLLAR extends the advance from earlier this week; may see range-bound prices ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision as market participants gauge the outlook for monetary policy.
  • The updated forecasts for growth, inflation and the interest rate is likely to take center stage as Chair Janet Yellen and Co. are largely anticipated to retain their current policy; may see the FOMC stay on course to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2016 as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment’ while central bank officials remain confident in achieving the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon.
  • Despite the rebound from the 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) zone, the USDOLLAR may struggle to get back above former support around 12,050 (50% retracement) should the FOMC show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle.
NZD/USD Struggles Following Daily Auction- Retail Longs Jump 26%

Read More:

Long-term Low in Silver?

Long Term Cyclical Influence Nears for AUD/USD

Another Big Test Awaits USD/CAD

DailyFX Technical Focus: Nikkei 225 at Resistance

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES