News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: "We need to boost confidence. So we should stimulate. But maybe people will know we are trying to boost confidence. And then…
  • $AUDUSD popping on the #RBA The central bank will continue to buy A$5b/week of bonds until early September, then tapering to 4b until at least mid-Nov Traders likely unwinding bets that the RBA could have reversed prior decision on asset purchases https://t.co/crmIIsaEaR https://t.co/vwJs7fwzr9
  • RBA: Sees gradual pickup in wages growth, underlying inflation. Sees some increase in unemployment rate in near-term -BBG
  • RBA: GDP to decline in September quarter, experience shows economy bounces back quickly. Economy still expected to grow strongly again next year -BBG
  • RBA: Condition for rate rise will not be met before 2024, sees Australia growing 'little over' 4% in 2022 -BBG
  • RBA sticks with taper plan -BBG #AUD $AUDUSD
  • 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision Actual: 0.1% Expected: 0.1% Previous: 0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.72%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.97%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9u54wDvyGc
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/5k12gmaSM0
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.36% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.10% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hycxcTiQnV
AUD/USD Stalls at 2015 Support- RBA, Labor Data to Spur Fresh Highs?

AUD/USD Stalls at 2015 Support- RBA, Labor Data to Spur Fresh Highs?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Tests 2015 Support Ahead of RBA Minutes, Australia Employment Report.

- USDOLLAR Extends Losses Ahead of FOMC Meeting- Updated Forecasts in Focus.

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD extends the advance from earlier this year, with the pair coming up against the 2015 support zone around 0.7580 (5% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion); will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) especially as the oscillator appears to be pushing into overbought territory.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Minutes may further boost the appeal of the higher-yielding currency as Governor Glenn Stevens continues to endorse a wait-and-see approach, and a meaningful rebound in Australia Employment may spark fresh 2016 highs in AUD/USD as market participants scale back bets for a rate-cut.
  • As a result, the key developments coming out next week may spur break/close above the 2015 support zone, which should open up the next topside target around 0.7650 (78.6% retracement).
AUD/USD SSI
  • Despite the near-term breakout, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since March 1, with the ratio hitting fresh extremes this month as it slipped below -2.00.
  • Retail sentiment has narrowed from recent extremes as the ratio currently sits at -1.84 as 35% of traders remain long, while open interest continues to pick up as it stands 21.3% above the monthly average.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11971.84

12021.53

11953

-0.26

122.08%

AUD/USD Stalls at 2015 Support- RBA, Labor Data to Spur Fresh Highs?USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the light economic docket, the USDOLLAR extends the decline from earlier this month, with the greenback slipping to fresh 2016 lows; may largely be a function of position adjustments as market participants turn their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on March 16.
  • With the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) anticipated to show stickiness in the core rate of inflation, the fresh projections (growth, inflation as well as the interest rate dot-plot) coming out of the central bank may generate a near-term recovery in the greenback should the FOMC show a greater willingness to further normalize in 2016.
  • Nevertheless, the failure to hold above the February low (12,001) accompanied by the bearish RSI formation may lead to a further decline in the USDOLLAR should the index break/close below the next key area of interest around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement).
AUD/USD Stalls at 2015 Support- RBA, Labor Data to Spur Fresh Highs?

Read More:

Another Big Test Awaits USD/CAD

DailyFX Technical Focus: Nikkei 225 at Resistance

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Core FX Pair In The Risk ParadigmUSDOLLAR: Key Levels to Know Heading into NFPs, March Open

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES