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USD/CAD Selloff to Persist on Upbeat Bank of Canada (BoC)

USD/CAD Selloff to Persist on Upbeat Bank of Canada (BoC)

2016-03-04 17:55:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Slips to Fresh Monthly Low; Retail FX Remains Net-Long Ahead of BoC Meeting.

- USDOLLAR Extends Decline Amid Slowing U.S. Wage Growth; Fed’s Fischer & Brainard in Focus.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the slowdown in Canada’s Ivey Purchasing Manger Index (PMI), USD/CAD stands at risk for a further decline as the pair dips below former resistance around 1.3420 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3460 (61.8% retracement), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish formation from earlier this year and flirts with oversold territory.
  • Even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to preserve its current policy at the March 10 interest rate decision, fresh comments from Governor Stephen Poloz may boost the appeal of the loonie should the central bank show a greater willingness to move away from its easing cycle.
  • Will keep a close eye on the downside targets as the near-term bearish formations continue to take shape, with the next region of interest coming in around 1.3190 (23.6% expansion) to 1.3230 (78.6% retracement).
USD/CAD SSI
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-long USD/CAD since February 25, with the ratio hitting a near-term extreme in March as it climbed towards +1.50.
  • Retail sentiment has come off of recent extremes as the ratio narrows to +1.16, with 54% of traders now long.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12062.88

12112.98

12042.19

-0.26

129.89%

USD/CAD Selloff to Persist on Upbeat Bank of Canada (BoC)USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the 242K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by the in the Labor Force Participation Rate, the USDOLLAR struggles to hold its ground following an unexpected slowdown in wage growth as Average Hourly Earnings narrowed to an annualized 2.2% from 2.5% in January.
  • Even though the U.S. economic docket remains fairly light for the week ahead, key speeches by Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer and Governor Lael Brainard may spark increased volatility in the greenback as market participants continue to mull the next Fed rate-hike.
  • Failure to hold above the 12,050 (78.6% & 50% retracement) region raises the risk for a further decline, with the 2016 low (12,001) on the radar following by 11,986 (61.8% retracement).
USD/CAD Selloff to Persist on Upbeat Bank of Canada (BoC)

Read More:

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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