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USDOLLAR Stands at Key Juncture Ahead of 4Q GDP Report

USDOLLAR Stands at Key Juncture Ahead of 4Q GDP Report

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Under Pressure- Downside Targets in Focus Ahead of 4Q GDP Report.

- USD/JPY Outlook Hinges on BoJ Rate Decision- Will Governor Kuroda Surprise?

- NZDUSD Range Unscathed by RBNZ; China PMI’s, New Zealand Employment on Tap.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12204.77

12250.43

12197.2

-0.38

141.04%

USDOLLAR Stands at Key Juncture Ahead of 4Q GDP ReportUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the limited market reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar struggles to hold its ground following the 5.1% decline in demand for U.S. Durable Goods, with the greenback at a risk for a larger pullback should the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fail to retain the bullish formation from back in August.
  • With the advance 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report anticipated to show the U.S economy growing an annualized 0.8% following the 2.0% expansion during the three-months through September, a marked slowdown in the growth rate accompanied by a downtick in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) may drag on interest rate expectations as Fed remains ‘data dependent.’
  • Failure to hold/close above 12,176 (78.6% expansion) to 12,219 (November high) may open up the next downside target around 12,049 (78.6% retracement) to 12,082 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

USDOLLAR Stands at Key Juncture Ahead of 4Q GDP Report

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the door open to further expand its asset-purchase program, more of the same from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may spark a similar reaction as the December 18 interest rate decision as the central bank continues to defy market expectations and endorses a wait-and-see approach.
  • Despite speculation for additional monetary support, Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report may encourage the BoJ to retain its current policy throughout the first-half of 2016 as the core-core rate of inflation is anticipated to hold at an annualized 0.9% in December; nevertheless, dollar-yen may face a larger rebound in the days ahead as the RSI carves a bullish formation, with a push/close above 119.00 (161.8% expansion) to 119.10 (38.2% expansion) to open up the next major topside target around 120.10 (61.8% retracement) to 120.20 (50% expansion).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since December 2, but the ratio continues to come off of recent extremes as it narrows to +1.47, with 60% of traders now long.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • NZD/USD may continue to congest over the near-term as we get more of the same from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), with Governor Graeme Wheeler keeping the door open to implement lower borrowing-costs.
  • The Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) coming out of China along with New Zealand’s Employment report on tap for the week ahead may provide a near-term directional bias for NZD/USD as market participants gauge the easing cycle in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • With NZD/USD largely capped around 0.6570 (100% expansion) to 0.6590 (38.2% retracement), will keep a close eye around 0.6370 (50% retracement) to 0.6400 (61.8% retracement) for support.

Read More:

GBP/USD – All About 1.4400

AUDJPY Following 2016 Trade Plan- Time to Reload

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Upside Risks Heightened Before BoJ (Levels)

COT-Trend Traders Hold Record Net Short Position in Copper

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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