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GBP/USD Remains Heavily Oversold- NZD/USD Rebound at Risk

GBP/USD Remains Heavily Oversold- NZD/USD Rebound at Risk

2016-01-19 18:20:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Remains Heavily Oversold Ahead of U.K. Jobless Claims Report.

- NZD/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Slowing New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI).

- USDOLLAR Rally to Benefit From Strong CPI Report- RSI in Focus.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the bullish reaction to the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI), GBP/USD struggles to hold its ground and continues to search for support as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney shows a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle.
  • Another uptick in U.K. Jobless Claims paired with a slowdown in Average Weekly Earnings may produce additional headwinds for the sterling as the ongoing weakness in wage growth encourages the BoE to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next policy meeting on February 4.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since November 19, but the ratio appears to be working its way back towards recent extremes as it widens to +2.41, with 71% of traders now long.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD struggles to retain the overnight advance as the Global Dairy Trade auction showed another 0.5% decline in Whole Milk Powder prices; will keep a close eye on New Zealand’s 4Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the headline reading for inflation is expected to slow to an annualized 0.3% from 0.4% in the three-months through September.
  • A marked slowdown in price growth may push the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to endorse a dovish outlook at the January 28 interest rate decision as Governor Graeme Wheeler keeps the door open to further embark on the easing cycle.
  • Will continue to watch former resistance around 0.6370 (50% retracement) to 0.6400 (61.8% retracement) for near-term support, with the RSI on the radar as the oscillator appears to have made a failed attempt to push into oversold territory.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12258.98

12281.87

12252.19

-0.09

88.60%

GBP/USD Remains Heavily Oversold- NZD/USD Rebound at RiskUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USDOLLAR continues to push to fresh monthly highs and stands at risk for a further advance as the RSI preserves the bullish formation from back in August and pushes into overbought territory.
  • With the U.S. CPI report anticipated to show an uptick in the headline as well as core rate of inflation, signs of stronger price growth may boost interest rate expectations as Fed officials continue to prepare households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs.
  • Will retain a constructive view for the USDOLLAR as it makes it way towards the topside targets around 12,273 (161.8% expansion) to 12,296 (100% expansion).
GBP/USD Remains Heavily Oversold- NZD/USD Rebound at Risk

Read More:

S&P 500 - Everybody Too Bearish Too Soon?

USDOLLAR Breakout Looks Hollow without EUR/USD Participation

Price & Time: GBP/USD: Is this only getting started?

Bearish EUR/USD: Eyeing New 2016 Lows

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders" series.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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