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USD/CAD Continues to Coil Ahead of BoC- RSI Trigger in Focus

USD/CAD Continues to Coil Ahead of BoC- RSI Trigger in Focus

Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Continues to Coil Ahead of Bank of Canada (BoC) Meeting; RSI Trigger in Focus.

- AUD/USD to Eye October High on Strong Australia 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report.

- USDOLLAR Struggles as ISM Manufacturing Survey Contracts for First Time Since November 2012.

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USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though Canada emerges from the technical recession, the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision may have a limited impact on USD/CAD should Governor Stephen Poloz continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach, which may keep the pair within a tight range amid the failed test of the September high (1.3456).
  • Long-term outlook remains bullish amid the diverging paths for monetary policy but, the dollar-loonie stands at risk for a larger correction as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bearish formation carried over from the end of September.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short USD/CAD since November 4, but the ratio appears to be holding within the recent extremes as it narrows to -2.23, with 31% of traders now long.


AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the October high (0.7381) as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) carries its current policy into 2016, while the region’s 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to highlight a stronger recovery, with the growth rate anticipated to expand an annualized 2.4%.
  • Despite waning expectations for a lower borrowing-costs in Australia, the pair appears to be stuck in a wedge/triangle formation, with the long-term outlook tilted to the downside as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens keeps the door open to further embark on the easing cycle.
  • Break/close above 0.7380 (50% retracement) to 0.7390 (78.6% expansion) may pave the way for a key reversal in AUD/USD amid the recent series of higher-lows in the exchange rate.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12156.2912197.4612147.88-0.31123.43%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USDOLLAR under pressure as the ISM Manufacturing survey dips below 50 to mark the first contraction since November 2012, with the greenback at risk of facing additional headwinds should the key data prints highlight a weakened outlook for growth and inflation.
  • Nevertheless, with the ADP Employment report is anticipated to show another 190K expansion in private payrolls, a positive development may keep the dollar afloat ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as current market forecast are calling for a 200K rise in employment.
  • Will retain a constructive view for the USDOLLAR as it continues to hold above former-resistance around 12,049 (78.6% retracement) to 12,082 (61.8% expansion), with the topside region of interest standing around12,273 (161.8% expansion) to 12,296 (100% expansion).

*As we approach the holidays and thus illiquid markets, it's worth reviewing principles that help protect your capital. We call these principles the "Traits of Successful Traders."

Three Factors Warn of Perfect Storm in FX Markets - Caution Advised

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.