Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
Retail FX Remains Net-Long EUR/USD Ahead of NFP- 1.0800 Key Support

Retail FX Remains Net-Long EUR/USD Ahead of NFP- 1.0800 Key Support

Talking Points:

- Retail FX Remains Net-Long EUR/USD Despite Dovish ECB Rhetoric.

- USD/CAD November Opening Monthly Low at Risk on Strong Canada Employment Report.

- USDOLLAR Tests October High (12,110) Ahead of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will continue to watch the downside risk for EUR/USD amid the recent series of lower highs & lows in the exchange rate, while the European Central Bank (ECB) pledges to further embark on its easing cycle; will keep a close eye on the July low (1.0807) as it lines up with the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion).
  • The bearish tilt in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) casts a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD especially as the pair fails to preserve the upward trend from earlier this year, but need the oscillator to push into oversold territory to favor a further decline in the days ahead.
  • Even though the euro-dollar extends the decline from the previous month, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long EUR/USD since November 3, while the ratio climbs to new extremes as it advances to +1.48, with 60% of traders long.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • With Canada Employment projected to increase another 10.0K in October, signs of stronger job growth may boost the appeal of the Canadian dollar and limit the topside risk for USD/CAD especially as the RSI largely preserves the bearish formation from back in July.
  • Data prints highlighting a stronger recovery may keep the Bank of Canada (BoC) on the sidelines at the December 2 policy meeting, but Governor Stephen Poloz may keep the door open to further embark on the easing cycle as the central bank tries to encourage a ‘soft-landing’ in the housing market.
  • As USD/CAD preserves the long-term uptrend, topside targets remain on the radar, with near-term resistance coming in around 1.3280 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3320 (38.2% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: GBP/USD – Turns Down Sharply From Timing Symmetry

GBP/USD Slides as BoE Cuts Forecasts, Keeps ZIRP Policies in Place

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12114.9412116.112077.860.2675.51%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar threatens the October high (12,110) ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as Fed officials continue to keep a December liftoff on the table; will keep a close eye on the RSI as it comes up against trendline resistance.
  • Beyond the headline reading for job growth, will keep a close eye on the Labor Force Participation Rate as it sits at the lowest since 1977, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase an annualized 2.3% following the 2.2% expansion in September.
  • Increasing bets for a December Fed rate-hike may spur a further advance in the days ahead, with the focus turning to the April high (12,162) amid the failed run at 12,176 (78.6% expansion) from earlier this year.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES