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GBP/USD Risks Further Losses as Bearish Outside-Day Takes Shape

GBP/USD Risks Further Losses as Bearish Outside-Day Takes Shape

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Carves Outside-Day; U.K. 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Radar.

- EUR/USD Searches for Support Following as ECB Removes Floor on Interest Rates.

- USDOLLAR Clears Near-Term Hurdle- Eyes Monthly High (12,081).

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD fails to retain the bullish reaction to the 1.7% rise in U.K. Retail Sales, with the pair carving an outside day; close below 1.5400 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5420 (78.6% expansion) may spur a further decline especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely preserves the bullish formation from back in May.
  • With the U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report expected to show the growth rate expanding another 2.4% in the third-quarter, a dismal development may produce near-term headwinds for the sterling as it provides the Bank of England (BoE) with greater scope to further delay the normalization cycle.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since August 21, but the ratio appears to be working its way back towards recent extremes as it advances to +1.77, with 64% of traders long.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD remains at a risk for a further decline as the European Central Bank (ECB) shows a greater willingness to further extend/expand its quantitative easing (QE) program while opening the door for a further decline in the deposit-rate.
  • As the ECB removes the floor on interest rates, the euro-dollar may continue to give back the rebound from back in late-July especially as the RSI fails to retain the bullish formation from earlier this year.
  • A break of the September low (1.1086) may expose the next key downside figure around 1.1000 handle (78.6% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: EUR/USD – The Real Deal?

EURCAD Bulls Brace for ECB- Rally Vulnerable Sub 1.4955

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12006.49

12010.95

11934.82

0.46

161.49%

GBP/USD Risks Further Losses as Bearish Outside-Day Takes ShapeUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised for a larger rebound as it clears the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement); will watch for a break of the bearish RSI formation from June to favor a resumption of the long-term upward trend.
  • Despite the limited market reaction to the U.S. data prints, the 4.7% expansion in Existing Home Sales may keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise the benchmark interest rate later this year as the central bank looks for a stronger recovery in the second-half of 2015.
  • The near-term advance brings the key near-term resistance zones back into play around 12,049 (78.6% retracement) to 12,082 (61.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

GBP/USD Risks Further Losses as Bearish Outside-Day Takes Shape

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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