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Retail FX Remains Net-Long USD/CAD Despite Fresh Monthly Low

Retail FX Remains Net-Long USD/CAD Despite Fresh Monthly Low

David Song,

Talking Points:

- USD/CAD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long Despite Fresh Monthly Low.

- NZD/USD Threatens Resistance Ahead of New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI).

- USDOLLAR Continues to Search for Support- U.S. Inflation to Slow in September.

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USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the limited market reaction to the 12.1K expansion in Canada Employment, USD/CAD remains at a risk for a further decline in the week ahead as it presses fresh monthly lows; will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with a push into oversold territory opening up the downside targets.
  • The sharp decline in full-time employment may become a concern for the Bank of Canada (BoC), but we may see Governor Stephen Poloz largely retain a upbeat view of the economy as the uptick in the Participation Rate suggests discouraged workers are returning to the labor force.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has flipped net-long USD/CAD on October 2, with the ratio advancing to +1.62 as 62% of traders are now long.


NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD stands at a key juncture as breaks above the August high (0.6707) and approaches the highs from July, while the RSI appears to be pushing into overbought territory.
  • Even though New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hold at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the third-quarter, a disappointing print may dampen the appeal of the kiwi amid expectations for another rate cut as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision on October 28.
  • Need a close above 0.6690 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6710 (78.6% expansion) to favor a further advance.

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Read More:

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11938.8911962.0511927.4-0.2067.47%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar continues to carve lower highs & lows following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes; will continue to watch the downside targets as the greenback struggles to hold above the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement).
  • Even though the Fed keeps the 2015 liftoff on the table, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may drag on interest expectations should the report highlight a weakened outlook for inflation.
  • As the bearish formation continues to take shape, next region of interest comes in around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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