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NFP prints at 339k vs estimates of 190k, ave earnings in line at 0.3% MoM

EUR/USD Struggles Ahead of ECB Rhetoric- USD/JPY Range Under Pressure

EUR/USD Struggles Ahead of ECB Rhetoric- USD/JPY Range Under Pressure

David Song,

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Struggles Ahead of ECB Rhetoric- S&P Calls for Larger & Longer QE Program.

- USD/JPY Range Vulnerable to Slowing China, Waning Market Sentiment.

- USDOLLAR Continues to Coil as ADP Employment Boosts NFP Expectations- Fed on Wires.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD struggles to hold its ground ahead of key speeches by the European Central Bank (ECB) officials as Standard & Poor’s (S&P) anticipates the Governing Council to extend its quantitative easing (QE) program until mid-2018, with the non-standard measure increasing the central bank’s balance sheet by EUR 2.4T.
  • Despite the dovish tone held by the ECB, may see risk trends continue to drive EUR/USD in October as market participants treat the Euro as a ‘funding-currency;’ may need imminent signs for additional ECB support for the long-term trends to come back into play as the central bank largely endorses a wait-and-see approach.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, but the ratio remains off of recent extremes going into October as it sits at -1.29, with 44% of traders long.


USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • With USD/JPY finally posting a closing price below near-term support around 11.90-90 (100% expansion), the pair remains at risk for a further decline in the month ahead especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish formation carried over from back in May.
  • Even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to release the Tankan survey, the key prints coming out of China may play a greater role in driving USD/JPY volatility over the next 24-hours of trade as fears surrounding the global economy drags on risk appetite.
  • Despite the diverging paths for monetary policy, the BoJ’s wait-and-see approach may open the door for a more meaningful downside correction in the exchange rate amid speculation for additional monetary support at the October 30 interest rate decision.

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Read More:

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Gold Rally Fails at Downtrend Resistance Again

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12073.3112079.9612051.760.0858.80%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may coil for a move higher as the 200K expansion in ADP Employment boosts expectations for an upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report; waiting for a break of the bearish RSI momentum for conviction/confirmation for a further appreciation in the greenback.
  • With Chair Janet Yellen, St Louis Fed President James Bullard and Governor Lael Brainard on tap later today, comments highlight a greater willingness for a 2015 liftoff may heighten the appeal of the greenback as it boosts interest rate expectations.
  • Need a close above 12,082 (61.8% expansion) to favor a move into 12,162 (April high) to 12,176 (78.6% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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