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EUR/USD Post-Fed Weakness Favored as Bullish Formations Unravel

EUR/USD Post-Fed Weakness Favored as Bullish Formations Unravel

David Song,

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Weakness Persists Ahead of ECB Rhetoric, Slowing PMI’s.

- USD/JPY Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Focus Amid Bets for Additional BoJ Easing.

- USDOLLAR Continues to Carve Bearish Formation Following Cautious Fed.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • With EUR/USD failing to hold above near-term support around 1.1260 (50% retracement) to 1.1270 (38.2% retracement), a closing price below the key region may raise the risk for a further decline especially if the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to retain the bullish formation carried over from back in March.
  • With European Central Bank (ECB) officials scheduled to speak this week, more dovish commentary accompanied by signs of a slower recovery in the euro-area may bring the broader fundamentals back in focus as the Governing Council stands ready and willing to further embark on its easing cycle.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-shortEUR/USD March 9, but the ratio continues to come off of recent extremes as it narrows to -1.38, with 42% of traders long.


USD/JPY Daily Chart
  • USD/JPY continues to coil within a tight range amid the ongoing closing prices within 119.80 (100% expansion) to 120.70 (50% retracement), but will keep a close eye on the RSI as it approaches trendline resistance from June.
  • Seeing growing bets for a further expand in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) asset-purchase program at the October 30 interest rate decision amid the growing concerns surrounding the global economy; will look for clues at the October 7 policy meeting.
  • Long-term outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish as the BoJ continues to carry out its easing cycle, but the pair may continue to congest in the days ahead as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Key Retracement In Time Ahead For the Euro

The Weekly Volume Report: Accumulation or Distribution in USD/JPY?

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11989.7412000.6811939.160.37120.69%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the disappointing Existing Home Sales report, Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar continues to retrace the decline from earlier this month, with a close above 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) raising the risk for a larger rebound.
  • Recent rhetoric from Fed officials suggests the central bank remains on course to normalize monetary policy following the 9-1 split within the committee; even though the Fed delays the rate-hike, the long-term bullish outlook for the greenback may continue to take shape unless there’s meaningful shift in the policy stance.
  • Failed attempts to close below 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) may bring the broader range back into play, with the key next topside region of interest coming in around 12,049 (78.6% retracement).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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