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USD/JPY Outlook Remains Mired Following BoJ- GBP Searches for Support

USD/JPY Outlook Remains Mired Following BoJ- GBP Searches for Support

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Outlook Remains Mired Bearish RSI Formation, Upbeat BoJ.

- GBP/USD Slips Back to Support Ahead of U.K. Jobless Claims Report.

- USDOLLAR Breaks Bearish Pattern Despite Disappointing Retail Sales, Industrial Production.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though USD/JPY snaps back from a fresh weekly low of 119.39, the bearish sentiment surrounding the Japanese Yen may continue erode as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) talks down bets for a further expansion in the asset-purchase program.
  • Will favor approach to sell-bounces in USD/JPY as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bearish trend carried over from June, with a break/close below 117,90 (38.2% retracement) to 118.30 (78.6% expansion) raising the risk for a test of the 116.07 (August low).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since June8, but the ratio appears to be working its way back towards recent extremes as it widens to +2.51, with 71% of traders long.


GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • The pullback in GBP/USD may turn into a larger decline following the failed attempt to push back above former support around 1.5460 (23.6% retracement); with U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) highlighting subdued price growth, may need upbeat developments to put the pound-dollar on a more bullish course.
  • Nevertheless, the U.K. Jobless Claims report may help to limit the downside risk for the British Pound should the data show a further improvement in the labor market accompanied by faster wage growth.
  • Break/close below near-term support around 1.5350 (50% retracement) may open up the next downside region of interest coming in around 1.5240 (50% retracement) to 1.5250 (100% expansion).

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Read More:

Price & Time: USD/JPY - Marking Time Until The Fed

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12005.2212016.1911964.380.2492.88%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the ongoing mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. economy, Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may mount a larger rebound as it breaks the recent series of lower-highs, with the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) seen as near-term support.
  • Nevertheless, with the U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to increase to an annualized 1.9% from 1.8% the month prior, signs of stronger price growth may boost the appeal of the greenback as it fuels interest rate expectations.
  • Ongoing closing prices above 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) may spur a run back to 12,049 (78.6% retracement).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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