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USD/CAD Bullish RSI Momentum Under Pressure- 2Q GDP Beats Forecast

USD/CAD Bullish RSI Momentum Under Pressure- 2Q GDP Beats Forecast

Talking Points:

- Canadian Dollar Fails to Benefit From Better-than-Expected 2Q GDP Report.

- AUD/USD Struggles to Hold Range Even as RBA Remains on Hold.

- USDOLLAR Remains Capped by 78.6% Retracement- ISM Manufacturing Disappoints.

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USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though Canada’s 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report beat market expectations, the loonie remains at risk of facing additional headwinds as the region enters a technical recession, and the long-term outlook for USD/CAD remains bullish amid the deviation in the policy outlook.
  • However, with the BoC widely expected to retain its current policy at the September 9 policy meeting, more of the same from Governor Stephen Poloz may trigger a near-term correction in USD/CAD especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to preserve the bullish momentum carried over from April.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short USD/CAD since June 18, but the ratio continues to come off of recent extremes as it narrows to -1.63, with 38% of traders long.


AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • May see a resumption of the long-term bearish trend as AUD/USD struggles to retain the range carried over from the previous week even as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains its current policy & continues to endorse a wait-and-see approach.
  • Close below near-term support around0.7090 (78.6% retracement) may spur a further decline in the exchange especially as the RSI dips into oversold territory.
  • Next downside region of interest comes in around 0.6950 (161.8% expansion).

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Read More:

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Webinar: ECB, NFP Report to Carve Opening Range for Euro Crosses

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12020.1812037.5811982.95-0.0786.82%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the ongoing batch of mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. economy, will keep a close eye on 12,049 (78.6% retracement) for the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar as the RSI breaks out of the bearish formation from July.
  • With the ISM Manufacturing survey’s employment component slowing for the second consecutive month, may see market expectations for a strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report diminish as the data continues to highlight the slack in the real economy.
  • Break & close above 12,049 (78.6% retracement) will bring up the next topside target at 12,082 (61.8% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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