Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
NZD Fails to Retain Range- AUD Holds Support Ahead of RBA

NZD Fails to Retain Range- AUD Holds Support Ahead of RBA

Talking Points:

- NZD/USD Fails to Retain Tight Range- Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long.

- AUD/USD Tests Support Ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Decision.

- USDOLLAR Resistance in Focus as Bullish Formation Gathers Pace.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Lack of momentum to retain the tight range raises the risk for a further decline in NZD/USD; the bearish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) accompanied by a closing price below near-term support around 0.6370 (50% retracement) to 0.6400 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for a resumption of the long-term bearish trend.
  • Still seeing heavy speculation for another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) at the September 9 interest rate decision, but will keep a close eye on the forward-guidance for monetary policy as market participants look for at least 50bp worth of rate cuts according to Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps (OIS).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long NZD/USD since August 20, with the ratio approaching recent extremes as it climbs to +2.29 as 70% of traders are long.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • Ongoing closes above 0.7090 may continue to produce range-bound prices in AUD/USD especially as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to keep the cash rate on hold at 2.00%.
  • However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens may sound more dovish this time around and open the door to further embark on the easing cycle amid the slowdown in China – Australia’s largest trading partner.
  • Need a close below near-term support around 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to favor a more meaningful run at 0.6950 (161.8% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

COT-Smallest Short Position for Large Euro Traders in Over a Year

Price & Time: EUR/USD - Too Many Questions And Not Enough Answers...Yet

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12030.4512036.9611993.470.1169.79%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the mixed batch of data from this morning, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to make it way towards 12,049 (78.6% retracement) as it continues to carve a series of higher-lows, while the RSI struggles to retain the bearish momentum from back in July.
  • With only so many data prints left ahead of the Fed’s September 17 interest rate decision, the key developments coming out of the U.S. economy may play an increased role in dictating market volatility & shaping interest rate expectations as the central bank remains ‘data dependent.’
  • USDOLLAR appears to be coiling within an ascending triangle/wedge formation as it holds above the June low (11,732), but need a close above 12,049 (78.6% retracement) to favor a resumption of the long-term bull trend.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES