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AUD/USD Downside Targets in Focus Ahead of RBA September Meeting

AUD/USD Downside Targets in Focus Ahead of RBA September Meeting

2015-08-26 16:45:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Downside Targets in Focus Ahead of RBA September Rate Decision.

- SPX500 Continues to Carve Bearish Pattern- Global Response on Tap?

- USDOLLAR Tests Former-Support Ahead of 2Q GDP, Fed Economic Symposium.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD remains at risk for a further decline as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes deeper into oversold territory; close below 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) may spur a more meaningful run at 0.6950 (161.8% expansion).
  • Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep the cash rate on hold at the September 1 policy meeting, recent comments from Governor Glenn Stevens suggests the central bank is becoming increasingly concerned amid the weakening outlook for global growth.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since May 15, with the ratio approaching recent extremes as it climbs to +2.52 as 74% of traders are long.

SPX500

SPX500 Daily Chart
  • Despite the recent efforts by China to restore market confidence, the ongoing series of lower-highs in SPX500 suggests sentiment remains fragile; need the RSI to push back above 30 to favor a larger rebound.
  • With key interest rate decisions coming up in September, a global response from the major central banks may be needed to fuel risk appetite amid the weakening outlook for the world economy.
  • As the RSI holds in oversold territory, a close below 1834 (61.8% retracement) may open up the next downside target at 1816 (38.2% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Will Aussie Respect the Confluence?

No, the Euro has not Suddenly Become a Safe-Haven Currency

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11901.52

11906.38

11838.65

0.57

113.07%

AUD/USD Downside Targets in Focus Ahead of RBA September MeetingUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the limited reaction to the better-than-expected U.S. Durable Goods Orders report, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar extends the rebound from the previous day to test former support around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement); closing price above the key region may highlight a larger recovery.
  • Despite expectations for an upward revision in the preliminary 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, the commentary coming out of the Fed’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming may have a larger impact on the greenback as New York Fed President William Dudley sees a ‘less compelling’ case for a September liftoff.
  • Waiting on a close below 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement) to open up the next downside target around 11,745 (50% retracement) to 11,759 (23.6% retracement).

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AUD/USD Downside Targets in Focus Ahead of RBA September Meeting

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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