Talking Points:
- USDOLLAR Fails to Hold NFP Gain; Range Remains in Focus Ahead of Retail Sales, U. of Michigan Confidence
- USD/CAD Topside Targets Remain in Focus as Bullish Formation Remains in Play.
- NZD/USD Double-Bottom Formation at Risk on Dismal New Zealand, China Data.
For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 12023.29 | 12071.17 | 12018.44 | -0.19 | 107.88% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised to retain the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month amid the ongoing failed attempts to close above 12,049 (78.6% retracement); will retail a constructive view as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bullish momentum from May.
- The largely in-line U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report should keep the Fed on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015, but may not be enough to secure a September liftoff as wage growth lags behind; will keep a close eye on Retail Sales & the U. of Michigan Confidence survey amid the recent weakness in private-sector consumption.
- The failed attempts to breakout of the near-term range may bring up near-term support around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) in the days ahead.
Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Despite the recent series of lower highs & lows in USD/CAD, will keep a close eye on the topside targets as long as price & RSI preserve the upward trend from earlier this year, with a break/close above 1.3210 (78.6% expansion) opening the door for 1.3280 (78.6% expansion); will also look for continued closing prices above former resistance around 1.3080 (61.8% expansion) for confirmation.
- The larger-than-expected expansion in Canada Employment may encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to endorse a wait-and-see approach, but central bank Governor Stephen Poloz may keep the door open to further reduce the benchmark interest rate amid the growing threat for a technical recession.
- Nevertheless, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short USD/CAD since June 18, with the ratio coming off of recent extremes as it narrows to -2.00 as 33% of traders are now long.
Read More:
Non-Farm Payroll Comes Largely In-Line, Sinks EURUSD
The Weekly Volume Report: What Does OBV Know?
NZD/USD
- NZD/USD appears to be carving a double-bottom formation amid the bullish divergence in the RSI; need a break/close above 0.6690 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6710 (78.6% expansion) to favor a larger correction.
- However, the key developments coming out of the Asia/Pacific region may limit the topside risk for NZD/USD as New Zealand’s 2Q Retail Sales are projected to increase 0.5% after expanding 2.7% during the first three-months of 2015.
- Failure to retain the bullish RSI momentum may spur a further decline in the days ahead, with the next region of interest coming in around 0.6370 (50% retracement) to 0.6400 (61.8% retracement).
Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.
Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand
Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.
New to FX? Watch this Video
Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums