Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View More
AUD Breaks Out on RBA- NZD Outlook Hinges on Job/Wage Growth

AUD Breaks Out on RBA- NZD Outlook Hinges on Job/Wage Growth

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Fails to Preserve Bearish Momentum as RBA Softens Verbal Intervention.

- NZD/USD Range at Risk in Dismal New Zealand Employment Report.

- USDOLLAR Continues to Look for Direction- ADP Employment, ISM Non-Manufacturing in Focus.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD breaks out of the near-term range as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) preserves its current policy & softens the verbal intervention on the local currency; looks poised for a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index fails to maintain the bearish momentum from May.
  • With Australia Employment expected to increase another 10.0K in July, another positive development may spur a larger rebound into key former support around 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (38.2% retracement).
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since May 15, with the ratio coming off of recent extremes to sit at +1.26 as 56% of traders are long.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD may continue to track sideways over the near-term after failing to preserve the descending channel from April; need a close above near-term resistance around 0.6690 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6710 (78.6% expansion) to favor a more meaningful recovery.
  • New Zealand’s Employment report is expected to show a 0.5% in the second-quarter after expanding 0.7% in the first three-months of 2015, but the wage growth figures may largely impact the market reaction especially as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) retains a dovish outlook for monetary policy.
  • Nevertheless, as the long-term outlook remains bearish for NZD/USD, we will keep a close eye on the downside targets around 0.6370 (50% retracement) to 0.6400 (61.8% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: EUR/USD - Where the Rubber Meets the Road? Step"?

The Weekly Volume Report: USD/CAD Turnover Supports Broader Trend

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11992.5012045.9711987.82-0.35112.20%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Ongoing failed attempts to close above near-term resistance around 12,049 (78.6% retracement) may spur a larger correction in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar especially as the RSI struggles to retain the bullish momentum.
  • Will keep a close eye on the ADP Employment report along with the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey to better-gauge market expectations surrounding Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
  • As the greenback comes off of near-term resistance, we will look for initial support around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES