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USD/JPY Searches for Near-Term Support as Risk Aversion Gathers Pace

USD/JPY Searches for Near-Term Support as Risk Aversion Gathers Pace

2015-07-27 16:30:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Larger USD/JPY Correction on Horizon as Risk Aversion Gathers Pace.

- GBP/USD Approaches Near-Term Resistance Ahead of 2Q U.K. GDP Report.

- USDOLLAR Fails to Benefit From Durable Goods Report- Bullish Formation at Risk.

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY may continue to give back the rebound from the monthly low (120.40) following the failed attempt to close above 124.30-40 (161.8% expansion), while market participants continue to scale back their appetite for risk amid the weakness in global equity prices.
  • Long-term outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish especially as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to carry out its asset-purchase program, but the weakening outlook for global growth may drag on market sentiment and produce a further consolidation in the exchange rate until we see a further expansion in the global easing cycle.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since June 8, with the ratio advancing to +1.95 as 66% of traders are now long.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • The failed attempts to close above 1.5450 (61.8% retracement) to 1.5460 (23.6% expansion) may produce a further consolidation in GBP/USD as it remains stuck in a wedge/triangle pattern; will keep a close eye on the advance U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as the growth rate is expected to expand 0.7%.
  • Signs of stronger growth may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish tone at the August 6 interest rate decision; will keep a close eye on the vote count for signs of a growing dissent.
  • A dismal U.K. GDP print may dampen the appeal of the sterling and spur a test of the July low (1.5329) along with the Fibonacci overlap around 1.5330 (78.6% retracement) to 1.5350 (50% retracement).

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Read More:

Price & Time: What Is GBP Volume Telling Us?

The Weekly Volume Report: Sharp Move Lower in GBP OBV

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11991.59

12042.48

11984.07

-0.38

113.17%

USD/JPY Searches for Near-Term Support as Risk Aversion Gathers PaceUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the better-than-expected U.S. Durable Goods Orders report, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to consolidate ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision amid concerns surrounding the growth outlook as Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircrafts, a proxy for future business investments, showed an unexpected contraction in May.
  • Even though market participants continue to look for a September liftoff, Fed officials may show a unanimous vote to retain the current policy amid the disinflationary environment along with the slowdown in global growth.
  • Failure to hold above the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) may bring up former resistance around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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USD/JPY Searches for Near-Term Support as Risk Aversion Gathers Pace

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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