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AUD/USD Range at Risk on Dismal China 2Q GDP Report

AUD/USD Range at Risk on Dismal China 2Q GDP Report

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Range at Risk on Dismal China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report.

- GBP/USD Threatens Bearish Pattern on Hawkish Carney- U.K. Wage Growth in Focus.

- USDOLLAR Weighed by Weak Retail Sales- All Eyes on Fed Testimony.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Even though the long-term outlook for AUD/USD remains bearish, the pair may face a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) makes a more assertive push off of oversold territory; will watch former support around 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) for new resistance.
  • Nevertheless, the aussie may face additional headwinds over the next 24-hours of trade as China – Australia’s largest trading partner – is expected to grow below an annualized 7.0% for the first time since 2009; may fuel speculation for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further embark on its easing cycle.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long AUD/USD since May 15, with the ratio coming off of extremes as its sits at +2.40.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • Despite the slowdown in the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI), GBP/USD is making a more meaningful assault to breakout of the downward trend from June as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney continues to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs.
  • May see a further advance in GBP/USD over the next 24-hours of trade as the U.K. Jobless Claims report is expected to show Average Hourly Earnings climbing an annualized 3.0% following the 2.7% expansion in April.
  • Failure to break trendline resistance along with the lack of momentum to close above 1.5540 (50% retracement) to 1.5570 (38.2% retracement) may produce range-bound prices in the coming days.

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Read More:

Webinar: EUR & JPY Struggle Post Greek Deal- Weekly Setups in Focus

USDJPY Key Near Term Trading Level is July 2nd High at 123.71

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11973.60

12018.88

11944.71

-0.25

130.05%

AUD/USD Range at Risk on Dismal China 2Q GDP ReportUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar pares the decline following the unexpected 0.3% contraction in U.S. Advance Retail Sales to preserve the upward trend carried over from the previous month as market participants still anticipate the Fed liftoff in September.
  • The semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony with Fed Chair Janet Yellen takes center stage as the mixed batch of data dampens the prospects for growth and inflation; limited risk for a material shift in the policy outlook as the central bank head sees scope for a 2015 rate hike.
  • With the bullish patterns still in play, topside targets remain on the radar with 12,043 (may high) to 12,049 up first, followed by 12,162 (April high).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

AUD/USD Range at Risk on Dismal China 2Q GDP Report

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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